Cuba embargo's critics hope the hard line is softening

Posted on Fri, Dec. 15, 2006

CONGRESS
Cuba embargo's critics hope the hard line is softening
After years of setbacks, opponents of the U.S. sanctions on Cuba see a
glimmer of optimism for Congress to change policy.
BY PABLO BACHELET
pbachelet@MiamiHerald.com

WASHINGTON - The Democrats' capture of Congress and Cuban leader Fidel
Castro's illness have dramatically altered the battle lines over Cuba
policy and given new hope to opponents of U.S. sanctions, analysts say.

A congressional delegation heading to Cuba today has drawn brisk
interest from lawmakers and their staffs, and critics of the sanctions
say that shows the legislative branch is keen on taking another look at
Cuba.

''There's a reenergizing of the base of people who want to work to
change this policy,'' said Mavis Anderson, head of the Cuba program for
the Latin America Working Group, a left-leaning advocacy organization
based in Washington. ``Outside of Congress, certainly people are excited
that there may be some new openings. Inside the Congress, I think that
will come.''

In recent years, President Bush has cut back everything from U.S. travel
to bank transfers and gift packages to the island, meeting little
resistance in a Republican-controlled Congress.

But now the ailing Castro is largely viewed as unlikely to return to
power. Democrats, traditionally less inclined to back the sanctions
against Cuba, are set to control Congress. Bush is looking more like a
lame-duck leader and his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, is leaving
office in January.

PROGRAMS QUESTIONED

Adding to that perfect-storm scenario, a report by the watchdog
Government Accountability Office last month questioned the efficiency of
U.S. democracy programs to support dissidents on the island, giving more
fuel to foes who argue that a change in policy is overdue.

''If you're a hard-liner on policy toward Cuba, things are not looking
very good for you,'' said Tomas Bilbao, executive director of the Cuba
Study Group, a centrist nonpartisan group based in Miami and Washington.

Congressional interest in Cuba is growing as the island continues to
chart its course in the post-Fidel Castro era.

Six Democrats and four Republicans signed up for the trip to Havana
organized by the House International Relations Committee. The visit, the
first since Castro fell ill in July, was an initiative of Arizona
Republican Rep. Jeff Flake, a vocal supporter of more U.S. engagement
with Cuba.

According to organizers, the congressional delegation has confirmed
meetings with Cuban National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcón and
Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque, and may meet with interim leader
Raúl Castro.

KEY ASPECTS

Few observers expect Congress to end the trade embargo on Cuba anytime soon.

But opponents are expected to challenge key portions of the Cuba policy,
including funding levels for the South Florida-based Radio and TV Martí
and the travel restrictions. Observers say the 2004 tightening of the
travel restrictions -- Cuban Americans now can only go to the island
once every three years instead of annually -- is especially vulnerable.

Several Democrats skeptical of Bush's Cuba policies will chair
committees that will give them a platform on Cuba matters, including New
York Rep. Charles Rangel on the Ways and Means Committee, Michigan Rep.
John Conyers on the Judiciary Committee and Wisconsin Rep. David Obey on
the Appropriations Committee.

On the Senate side, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden is to head the Foreign
Relations Committee and Sen. Max Baucus of Montana, who once held up
Treasury Department nominations to protest restrictions on U.S. trade
with Cuba, will chair the Finance Committee, according to a tally kept
by Anderson's group.

''Obstructionists have been moved out of leadership in the Congress,''
the group said in a Nov. 28 e-mail to fellow activists. ``We have reason
to be optimistic.''

But Cuba bills still need to pass the floor of both chambers, where
supporters of the embargo believe members will be reluctant to change a
Cuba policy when Havana may be on the eve of a historic shift because of
Castro's illness.

''I am fully confident that, despite our reversals in Congress, U.S.
sanctions will be kept on the Cuban dictatorship until a democratic
transition is genuinely under way,'' said Miami Republican Rep. Lincoln
Díaz-Balart, one of the staunchest defenders of Bush policies on Cuba.
``We have bipartisan solid support for Cuba's freedom in Congress, and
George W. Bush is still president.''

The Latin America Working Group counts 182 representatives from both
parties as firmly in the camp of favoring a change in Cuba policy, well
short of the 218 needed to pass bills.

FRESHMAN CLASS

The big uncertainty is the 50-plus-member freshman class, dominated by
Democrats. But congressional votes on Cuba tend to be muddy, as
farm-state Republicans often vote for more trade, while many Democrats
join Republican colleagues in keeping the restrictions on Havana.

The previous freshman class voted overwhelmingly against easing Cuba
sanctions, and Albio Sires, a Cuban-American New Jersey Democrat just
elected to the House, is expected to lobby against rolling back Cuba
sanctions. The office of Lincoln Díaz-Balart has already begun reaching
out to the freshman class with literature and invitations to briefings
on Cuba-related issues, a staff member said.

On the Senate side, congressional aides say, Democratic Majority Leader
Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada opposes easing sanctions, as do other key
members such as Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., Mel Martinez, R-Fla., and Bob
Menendez, D-N.J.

IN NO RUSH

So far, Democrats are not rushing to change the Cuba policy.

Rangel, on the Ways and Means Committee, remains committed to
overturning the embargo, but his aides say he will move legislation only
if a majority of the committee wants it. Rangel also said that he did
not join the congressional delegation to Cuba because ''no matter how
well-intended the trip is, it would seem as if we were surveying the
grounds'' for a post-Fidel Castro Cuba.

Then there's the 2008 presidential elections, in which Democrats may be
reluctant to anger Cuban-American voters in Florida by relaxing Cuba
sanctions.

''The Cuba policy is based on the dream of both parties to capture the
Cuban vote in Miami,'' said New York Democratic Rep. José Serrano, a
firm proponent of more engagement with Havana.

Kevin Hall of the McClatchy News Service contributed to this report.

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