Miami Cubans: Fidel era over

Posted on Tue, Oct. 03, 2006

PUBLIC OPINION
Miami Cubans: Fidel era over
A poll of Cuban exiles and Cuban Americans shows optimism about a
transition to democracy on the communist island and an openness to U.S.
negotiations with a new Cuban government.
BY OSCAR CORRAL
ocorral@MiamiHerald.com

An overwhelming majority of Cuban Americans and Cuban exiles think that
an ailing Fidel Castro will never return to power and that a transition
could take hold within four years, according to a new poll examining the
attitudes of South Florida's Cuban community.

Those are among several findings in a poll of 600 Cuban and Cuban
American adults in Miami-Dade and Broward counties conducted Sept. 14-20
by Bendixen & Associates. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage
points.

Seventy-four percent of Cuban Americans believe Fidel Castro is
terminally ill, and 14 percent think he will recover from illness but
never return to power.

With Cuba's Defense Minister Raúl Castro now in charge of the communist
island, 55 percent of Cubans surveyed think a ''major transition towards
democracy'' is a major probability, and 30 percent believe it's a minor
probability.

''Fidel Castro is politically dead, and for all intents and purposes a
relic for the history books,'' said Fernand Amandi, executive vice
president of Bendixen & Associates.

It is the first major poll of Cuban Americans to be released since Fidel
Castro had intestinal surgery for an undisclosed illness and transferred
power to his brother, Raúl, at the end of July. Amandi said the poll was
paid for by his company and by NDN, a nonprofit group formerly known as
the New Democrat Network, which supports Democratic Party candidates.

NDN executive Joe Garcia said the poll shows that Cuban Americans and
exiles are optimistic about the future, but perhaps frustrated with
President Bush's handling of U.S.-Cuba policy in the wake of Fidel
Castro's transfer of power.

Of the 600 polled, two-thirds said they were registered to vote, and of
those, 72 percent identified themselves as Republican.

Asked if they approve or disapprove of the way Bush ''has managed the
situation in Cuba since Fidel Castro handed over power to his brother,''
51 percent approved, while 28 percent disapproved and 21 percent didn't
know or didn't answer.

''All he [Bush] has promoted is the status quo in Cuba,'' Garcia said.
``When you realize the president has only 51 percent approval, it shows
you that his numbers are tremendously weak.''

DISPUTES CLAIM

Ana Carbonell, chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart,
disputed Garcia's claim that the president's support is slipping in the
Cuban-American community.

''The Cuban-American community has full confidence in the
administration's commitment to bringing about a full transition in
Cuba,'' said Carbonell. ``The president has reiterated what U.S. policy
is, which is that the U.S. will not engage the government of the Castro
brothers.''

The results of one question in particular may catch the attention of
Washington and of Raúl Castro's temporary government in Cuba.
Seventy-two percent said the United States should ''negotiate'' with a
''new Cuban government [if it] shows an interest in a gradual
improvement of relations with the exile community and with the United
States.'' Only 20 percent said it should not negotiate.

''That to me was one of the most startling numbers,'' Amandi said. ``You
hear all of this talk about how dialogue is almost a four-letter word in
the exile community . . . but this number speaks to the open-mindedness
of the exile community.''

Several Cuban exile leaders have long said that dialogue is possible
with anyone but the Castro brothers.

Sergio Bendixen acknowledged that he believes fewer people would have
voiced support for negotiation if the question had named Raúl Castro by
name as a leader of a new Cuban government.

Like previous polls of the exile community, this one illustrates the
different political attitudes among exiles who arrived in the United
States before 1980, and those who came during the 1980 Mariel boatlift
and afterward.

TIME FACTOR

Most of the early waves of exiles support travel and remittance
restrictions imposed by Bush in 2004, which limited trips to visit
family to once every three years and capped the amount of money exiles
can send people in Cuba to $100 a month. The restrictions were opposed
by a majority of Cubans who came in the 1980s and after.

One issue that exiles tend to agree on is the belief that property in
Cuba now belongs to the people living there. Only 20 percent of those
polled believe that residential properties in Cuba ''should belong to
those who have title to that predating Fidel Castro's revolution.''
Sixty-seven percent said the properties belong to those who live in them
now.

Florida International University professor Antonio Jorge said he
believed some of the questions were loaded and may have led to skewed
answers. For example, the question that asks about the probability of a
''major transition toward democracy in Cuba'' doesn't explain what is
meant by transition.

OPTIMISM

''It does illustrate optimism, but it's not a properly worded
question,'' Jorge said.

He also took issue with the wording of the question that asked about
negotiating with a new Cuban government. To many exiles, he said,
''gradual improvement of relations'' means taking steps toward democracy
and a free-market economy -- changes that the current Cuban government
has not expressed an interest in pursuing.
Miami Herald staff writer Casey Woods contributed to this report.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/breaking_news/15664385.htm