Dissidents see slow change in Cuba

Dissidents see slow change in Cuba
Posted 8/7/2006 7:51 PM ET
By Vanessa Arrington, Associated Press

HAVANA — Dissidents like Oswaldo Paya say Fidel Castro's illness has
changed the communist country forever by exposing a system ruled by one
man for nearly a half century to the influence of others — even if only
temporarily.

In the week since the Cuban president underwent surgery and temporarily
stepped down, everyone on the island has been forced to imagine what
Cuba would be like without Castro, said Paya.

"This temporary absence has made people confront the real possibility of
a new Cuba," the well-known activist told the Associated Press.

He said that possibility could bring out discontent in the system that
has been building for years, opening the way for demands for more
economic freedoms and greater political participation.

"No one can claim that we'll be able to keep living in the same way," he
said in an interview conducted Sunday in his Havana living room filled
with photographs of Cuban political prisoners and portraits of Jesus Christ.

Most activists — Paya included — don't expect dramatic change in the
immediate future, and in the meantime they're keeping a low profile to
avoid trouble.

While exiles flooded the streets of Miami in celebration at Castro's
announcement, dissidents on the island stayed home, deeming it too early
to step up their activities.

Some speculated that the severity of the 79-year-old Castro's illness
was exaggerated, and that the temporary transfer of power was a "test"
to see how they would react.

Many didn't want to trigger a reaction from Castro supporters upset over
his illness, while others feared neighborhood informants and state
security agents.

"There's a certain tension on the streets, an environment of distrust
when it comes to expressing oneself," Paya said. Dissidents, he said,
have adopted the "popular wisdom of the street" and been respectful and
cautious.

Activist Vladimiro Roca, who spent five years in prison for his
political activities, was more blunt.

"All the mechanisms of repression have been activated," he said. "We
really are quite weak, particularly since we have no way of mobilizing
ourselves."

Public protests against the government are extremely rare in Cuba. One
of the boldest acts is a weekly march in Havana by the Ladies in White,
wives of political prisoners demanding their husbands' release. The
women marched Sunday without incident.

Cuba's most prominent activists are moderates; Castro's more extreme
opponents left the island years ago or are behind bars.

Dissidents like Paya — who became famous with his Varela Project, a
signature drive for democracy that prompted the government to declare
socialism "irrevocable" — emphasize dialogue over aggressive change.

"This should be a moment of peace, of serenity," he said. "The time has
come to really put our heads together."

Oscar Espinosa Chepe, a state-trained economist who became an
anti-communist dissident, agreed. "There is no solution without the
reconciliation of all Cubans," he said.

Both men have been victims of the system, but said they are willing to
forgive to move forward.

Paya faces death threats and constant surveillance. Espinosa Chepe was
among 75 dissidents picked up in a 2003 crackdown but was freed on
parole for health reasons at the end of 2004. He could go back to prison
at any time.

Despite hardships, many dissidents embrace some ideals of Castro's
system, such as free education and health care. Importing U.S.-style
capitalism and democracy — the strategy favored by many exiles and the
U.S. government — won't necessarily work in Cuba, and certainly not
right away, they say.

"The exiles have exactly the same rights as Cubans on the island, but
what they don't have are the same circumstances," Paya said.

Cubans on the island will reject any change seen to be imposed by
outsiders, since the people in Cuba are the ones who need political and
economic reforms, he said.

"It's time to consider making Cuba's 11 million people the
protagonists," he said. "The lives of 11 million Cubans are more
important than the memory of one man."

Unity among Cubans may be difficult after decades of scorn for
"gusanos," or "worms" — a term used for native Cubans who disagree with
Castro's vision of the world and are considered U.S. puppets.

Some dissidents say Raul Castro, the younger brother Fidel Castro left
in charge during his illness, could be more open to reforms if he stays
in power.

"He lets people counsel him, unlike Fidel, whose only adviser is found
in the mirror," Roca said. "He has a more open mind."

Roca does not believe Raul Castro, who controls the armed forces, would
tolerate unrest in the streets. But he would be unable to ignore Cubans'
increasing frustration with poverty, Roca said.

Espinosa Chepe agreed that the younger brother would be compelled to
launch economic reforms as rising prices of food and basic services like
electricity cripple Cubans, whose average salaries are $15 a month. And
then, he said political reforms might follow.

"This would be a huge step forward for Cuba," Espinosa Chepe said. "But
to make any changes, Raul Castro first needs full power."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2006-08-07-cuba-change_x.htm?csp=34