Cuba ponders the future

Cuba ponders the future
August 08 2006 at 06:38AM
By Marc Frank

Havana - Cubans appeared as surprised as the outside world on Monday
that they had gotten through a week without Fidel Castro in power and at
death's door.

Worries the government might collapse, social unrest break out, or the
United States intervene proved unfounded, after Castro announced last
Monday that he was provisionally ceding power to his brother Raul Castro
after undergoing surgery for internal bleeding.

Yet Cubans and experts agree this is a momentous moment for Fidel Castro
and the country he has governed for 47 years, and that even if the
ardent revolutionary who turns 80 this week recovers, neither his role
nor the Caribbean island will be the same.

"Even though this is provisional, his handing over of power is an
extremely important development, said John Kirk, a Latin American expert
in Canada.

"It represents Fidel Castro's acceptance that a different plateau in the
revolutionary process has been reached, and that his role will be
reduced in the future."

Castro's most loyal followers felt reassured the revolution would
continue without him.

"This process has served to strengthen us and proved how we are capable
of uniting and continuing forward," said a party militant named Jorge,
who like many others asked that his full name not be used.

Many Cubans spoken to by Reuters were proud the government had
maintained calm and people had behaved so well.

"I think we gave everyone, including ourselves, a lesson in civility.
Everyone was at their post, sad about Fidel, without panic or chaos,"
said high school teacher Alberto Martinez.

But others tired of the years of hardship that followed the Soviet
Union's demise in the early 1990s and what they see as excessive
government control over their lives, had a different take.

"The people are unhappy but scared because they do not know what will
come after. We are waiting for something, but do not know what. It's not
like Cubans want capitalism, just a change - but to what, we ask," a
doctor said.

Seventy percent of Cuba's 11,2 million people were born after Castro's
guerrillas swept down from the mountains and overthrew a dictator, and
have known nothing but his rule and socialism.

"My generation has never lived through a change of president so we did
not know what to expect," said 19-year-old Ruben from a sugar town in
central Cuba.

"That's what the younger generation fears, not just the sadness over
Fidel, but the political question, that is what I'm scared of. I didn't
know how the people would react," his girlfriend, Malisa, chimed in.

Osmani, 23, also from central Cuba, said it might be a good idea for
Castro to semi-retire and stay around a while to smooth out future
wrinkles, a view expressed by people from every generation.

"The best option is that he slows down because his health is no good
anymore to continue as he has," Ruben said, as the other young people,
on vacation in Havana, nodded their heads.

"The best is that he stays as a figure, the figure everyone will follow,
but that he doesn't make the most important decisions because at his age
his reasoning is not the same," Ruben said.

Paolo Spadoni, a Cuba economy expert in Florida, said the Cuban
government was lucky that as Castro's rule nears its end, it had
benefited from an economic upturn fueled by its relations with oil-rich
Venezuela and with China.

That might have tempered public frustration at shortages.

"While constituting the most important political turnaround in Cuba over
the past 47 years, Fidel's illness and his temporary relinquishment of
power could not have occurred at a better time for the island's
government," he said.

"Imagine if this had taken place 10-12 years ago, in the middle of a
deep economic recession that followed the Soviet collapse," Spadoni said.

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