By BRIAN LATELL
January 7, 2008; Page A12
Without a hint of irony, Fidel Castro asserted twice last month in
columns in Cuba's Granma newspaper, that he is not one "to cling to
power." The truth is that few world leaders in modern times have ruled
as long as he has. On New Year's Day he began the 50th year of his
dictatorship.
But now, at the age of 81, handicapped and incapable of providing
coherent leadership, the end of his historic reign is imminent. He has
not been seen in public for more than 17 months after ceding authority
"provisionally" to his brother Raúl, Cuba's defense minister.
[Raul Castro]
During his incapacitation there have been no reports of Communist Party
officials seeking his counsel, carrying out his directives, or even
taking initiatives in his name. When pressed to comment on Fidel's
condition and role in the leadership, Cuban officials lately have been
saying mainly that he continues to inspire them and provide ideas.
So it seems all but certain that, voluntarily or not, he'll vacate the
Cuban presidency early this year, though he may symbolically hold onto
some new, wholly honorific title.
The transition at the top will probably set in motion cascading
reassignments of civilian and military officials. Raúl Castro will call
the shots, but mostly from behind the scenes. With his own bases of
support in the armed forces that he has run since 1959, the security
services he has controlled since 1989, and the Communist Party he
manages, he has the power and legitimacy to preside over the succession.
He has been the designated heir since January 1959. And at the age of
76, with many years of hard drinking under his belt, he is probably
viewed by most in the leadership as a transitional figure, better to be
courted than challenged.
Raúl's style guarantees that Cuba will be governed differently. He'll
rule more collegially than his brother, consulting trusted subordinates
and delegating more. During the interregnum he has worked with officials
of different generations and pedigrees, even promoting one long-time
archrival to create a united front after his brother's initial withdrawal.
On his watch, Raúl has broken some previously sacred crockery as well.
He has admitted that Cuba's many problems are systemic. In his
disarmingly accurate view, it is not the American embargo or
"imperialism" that are the cause of problems on the island, as his
brother always insisted, but rather the regime's own mistakes and
mindsets. He has called on Cubans, especially the youth, to "debate
fearlessly" and help devise solutions for the failures. Candid
discussions at the grassroots level have proliferated.
Yet like his brother, Raúl has no intention of opening Cuba to free
political speech or participation. While the number of Cubans willing to
voice their discontent publicly is on the increase, so too is the
brutality of government reprisals against would-be leaders of the
dissident movement. By acknowledging state failures, Raúl is playing
with fire, and if the lid is going to be kept on, those challenging the
regime have to pay a price. As to his own future, in the leadership
realignments he plans, he will probably move up one rank and assume
command of the Communist Party as first secretary.
In an address last July dedicated primarily to massive failures in
agriculture, Raúl called for "structural and conceptual" change. Given
his past sympathetic references to the laws of supply and demand, his
advocacy of liberalizing economic reforms in the 1990s, and the many
for-profit enterprises his military officers have been encouraged to
run, he probably plans to introduce market incentives in the
countryside. That might prove the first step toward adopting something
akin to the Chinese or Vietnamese economic development models.
It has been Raúl's preference since the earliest days of his partnership
with Fidel to work inconspicuously in the background. As they have been
doing since Fidel's confinement, others will represent Cuba abroad and
preside at holiday events. Someone who is not named Castro will likely
become Cuba's next president. There has never been a "third man" in the
running for leadership. But legitimizing the longer-term succession is
surely now one of Raúl's highest priorities. Politburo member and Vice
President Carlos Lage is the leading candidate. A medical doctor 20
years younger than Raúl, Mr. Lage is widely considered an advocate of
economic reform.
After nearly a half century of Fidel's suffocating control, the
transition will be daunting. His successors are inheriting a bankrupt
and broken system, a profoundly disgruntled populace, and acute economic
problems. The worst of these are the dysfunctional public transportation
and agricultural sectors, a housing shortage, decrepit infrastructure,
unemployment and the widening gap in living standards between Cubans
with access to hard currency and the more numerous poor who must subsist
on worthless pesos.
And there is Hugo Chávez. Unlike Fidel, Raúl has no personal rapport
with the mercurial Venezuelan president, and surely no desire to be
subordinated to another narcissistic potentate just as he is finally
close to escaping his brother's grip. But Cuba has become highly
dependent economically on Venezuela. The value of the Chávez dole,
mostly oil, reached between $3 billion and $4 billion last year,
approaching the amounts once provided by the Soviet Union. Raúl would be
loath to provoke the Venezuelan. Without his support, the Cuban economy
would soon plunge into deep recession.
There is no way to know how skillfully Raúl Castro will lead and deal
with inevitable crises once his brother is gone. He clearly wants to
begin rectifying economic problems but knows that, for some time at
least, he cannot broadly repudiate his brother's legacy. A powerful
backlash could come from fidelista hard-liners in the leadership -- and
perhaps from Mr. Chávez. In the end, however, it is the gamble Raúl will
have to take.
Mr. Latell served as national intelligence officer for Latin America
from 1990-1994 and is author of "After Fidel," (Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119966537914871109.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
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