Mexico might turn back on Cuban opposition

THE OPPENHEIMER REPORT
Mexico might turn back on Cuban opposition
Posted on Thu, Jan. 24, 2008
BY ANDRES OPPENHEIMER
aoppenheimer@MiamiHerald.com

What irony! Mexico's center-right President Felipe Calderón, a man who
made his political life fighting for democracy, may become his country's
first leader in 15 years to improve ties with Cuba's dictatorship and to
turn his back on the island's peaceful opposition.

And judging from what Cuba's best-known opposition leader, Oswaldo Payá,
told me in a telephone interview from Havana this week, Mexico's
official shunning of Cuba's opposition -- much like Brazilian President
Luis Inácio Lula da Silva's similar attitude during a recent visit to
Cuba -- could hardly come at a worse time.

First, the facts: Earlier this week, a Mexican government communiqué
announced that Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa will visit Havana in
March for the first official meeting with her Cuban counterpart. The
visit ''reflects the political will that has been expressed by the two
governments to establish a framework of bilateral understanding,'' the
Mexican foreign ministry said in a statement.

There is no indication in the statement that Mexico's foreign minister
will meet with Cuba's peaceful opposition leaders, as Cuban officials
regularly do when they travel to Mexico.

What's more, Calderón -- whose ambassador to the United Nations Human
Rights Council presided over the recent meeting that killed the U.N.
monitoring of Cuba's rights abuses -- would become the first president
since 1992 to keep Cuban dissidents or exiles at arm's length.

In 1992, former President Carlos Salinas met with Cuban exile leader
Carlos Montaner and the late Jorge Mas Canosa. In 1999, Mexican
President Ernesto Zedillo had his foreign minister, Rosario Green, meet
with Cuba's human rights leader, Elizardo Sánchez. In 2002, Mexican
President Vicente Fox met with Payá and other opposition leaders in Havana.

A BIG `SETBACK'

''This would be very serious,'' said former Mexican Foreign Minister
Jorge Castañeda, referring to the possibility that Espinosa may shun
Cuba's peaceful opposition during her trip to Cuba. ``It would amount to
a setback going back three administrations, and it would be a clear
abdication of everything that [Calderón's] National Action Party has
said and done.''

Asked about whether Espinosa will meet with dissidents during her trip,
a Mexican foreign ministry spokesman told me that ''the trip's agenda
has not been drafted yet.'' He added that officials of the two countries
have ``agreed to discuss all issues on the bilateral agenda, including
human rights.''

Payá, head of Cuba's Christian Liberation Movement, a group that in
recent years gathered about 25,000 signatures on the island calling for
a referendum on fundamental freedoms, told me that visits to Cuba by
foreign officials that don't include meetings with opposition leaders
''don't contribute to peaceful change'' on the island.

'I know that they [Mexico] will argue that they don't interfere in other
countries' affairs, but anyone who starts a relation with the Cuban
government excluding the peaceful opposition and civil society is
interfering big-time in Cuba's affairs by identifying -- and
strengthening -- those who wield power as if they were the only players,
and excluding the majority of the people,'' Payá said.

Asked whether Mexico, Brazil and other countries were bypassing Cuba's
opposition in an effort to get a foothold on the island and play a
constructive role in an upcoming transition period, Payá said the net
effect of shunning the opposition is delaying democratic changes.

''By doing this [speaking only with the Cuban regime], they are
contributing to hardening the regime's stands, and to dishearten the
Cuban people,'' said Payá, whose proposed political reforms are listed
on www.oswaldopaya.com. ``At this very moment, far from contributing to
peaceful change and dialogue among Cubans, they are doing the opposite.''

FOR WHAT PURPOSE?

My opinion: There is nothing wrong with Mexican officials -- or those of
any other country, including the United States -- holding talks with
Cuba's dictatorship if they are also talking with Cuba's opposition.

And, having interviewed Calderón many times over the past 15 years, I
have no doubt that his heart is with the Cuban dissidence.

But if Calderón is cozying up to Cuba's dictatorship to get
congressional support at home for his economic reforms, or to reaffirm
his credentials as a Mexican nationalist, he has chosen the wrong issue.

He could find many worthier reasons to confront Washington, including
the shameful anti-immigration sentiment fanned by most Republican
candidates. Strengthening a decrepit dictatorship would be a big
political mistake, and a betrayal of Calderón's own political history.

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