Military Takeover of Cuba Not Such a Remote Possibility

Military Takeover of Cuba Not Such a Remote Possibility

By Jean Damu
Commentary
Berkeley Daily
Infosearch:
José F. Sánchez
Research Dept.
La Nueva Cuba
August 15, 2006

Some politicians and bureaucrats in Washington, D.C. and anti-Castro
activists in Florida have been waiting so long for the passing from the
scene of Cuban president Fidel Castro, that now that he has actually
ceded power, it remains to be seen whether or not they can restrain
themselves from attempting to provoke an event or series of events that
would force Cuba to turn to its military for political stability and
military defense during this transition period.

As far as Cubans likely are concerned, of all the circumstances that
could have initiated the transition of political power, the one
currently unfolding is best. By ceding power to Raul Castro, Fidel's
younger brother, presumably while Fidel is still alive, the government
has given time for the Cuban people to psychologically prepare for a new
leader.

Having been born since the advent of the Cuban Revolution the majority
of the population has known no other political leader. As they wait to
hear a definitive statement on Fidel's health the emotional tension now
must be overwhelming. The military waits as well.

Contrary to prevailing wisdom in the U.S. press, this is not the first
time Fidel has ceded power to Raul. In the 1970s Castro underwent
another medical situation and temporarily handed power to his brother.
Then the mood was not nearly as somber as now.

Correctly the U.S. press has focused on four men whom are considered to
be top candidates to replace Fidel. The four, Raul Castro, Foreign
Minister Felipe Roque, National Assembly head Ricardo Alarcon and Cuba's
top economist Carlos Lage are all eminently qualified and politically
skilled. Of the four, however, it would seem Roque, just 41, is the one
who has been most diligently groomed for the job. In addition he
commands the most passion among Cubans.

Many consider Roque the most likely long term replacement. He is a
former head of the Young Communist organization and in the Cuban
perspective is considered politically sound. Raul Castro on the other
hand has often been considered to the left of Fidel and he is a sterner
person. He does not generate emotion in the people in the way his
brother does.

But for the time being Raul Castro is the head of the Cuban government,
not because his brother says but because the Cuban Constitution says.
Therefore now Raul is not only the head of the Cuban state but he is
also head of the Revolutionary Armed Forces.

Raul Castro is not the head of the Cuban armed forces the way George
Bush is head of the U.S. armed forces. Raul, as a youth was a member of
the Cuban Communist Party's Young Communist League and broke party
discipline to join the armed July 26 Movement that brought his older
brother to power. He is now a highly trained and more importantly highly
experienced militarist, having attended numerous advanced military
courses in the former Soviet Union and overseeing Cuba's highly
successful military expeditions in Angola and Ethiopia. Most often in
public he is seen wearing his uniform.

Furthermore, Cuban are comfortable with the army in their midst. Unlike
the United States where most military units are confined to military
reservations and are seen only on television or in parades, the Cuban
army is integrated into the people's everyday life. The army, in
particular, is seen everywhere from doing security work at office
buildings and large apartment complexes to working in agricultural
enterprises. In Cuba the RAF are mostly self-sustaining and control
nearly 11 percent of the economy. It participates in the tourist sector
of the economy by running hotels and in agriculture by operating
sizeable and productive farms.

In addition to all this the Cubans are already organized into a
paramilitary organization that has access to arms, the Committees to
Defend the Revolution. Most Cubans participate in the CDRs, many even
donning uniforms on special occasions, especially when they feel
threatened by war sounds coming from Washington. Georgina Chebou, a
leading member of the Cuban Communist Party's Central Committee told
this writer not long ago, "We've always felt if we were ever to solve
our energy problems, Washington would invade us."

One would be hard pressed to convince Cubans they are all paranoid
conspiracy theorists. As far as they are concerned all their enemies are
real. History would seem to bear them out. Fabian Escalante, a long time
head of Cuba's Ministry of the Interior (in charge of state security)
recently revealed he believes there have been in excess of over 600
assassination attempts against Fidel.

Also, this writer, as a guest of Cuban general Arnaldo Tamayo, has been
inside the fortified tunnels that surround the U.S. naval installation
at Guantanamo . Reportedly the existence of these tunnels is not unique
in Cuba. Clearly any military incursion the U.S. might launch into Cuba
would create a far, far more complicated and militarily ferocious
response than what took place during 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion.

No one in Cuba in their right mind would want the military to take over
the Cuban government, unless the United States creates the conditions to
warrant it.

The best course for everyone involved, especially the politicians and
bureaucrats in Washington, D.C. and Florida, is to keep their distance
and to allow this uniquely Cuban transition of power to continue peacefully.

http://www.lanuevacuba.com/nuevacuba/notic-06-08-1610.htm