Look for Opportunity In Cuba's Transition

Look for Opportunity In Cuba's Transition
August 11, 2006

No one lives forever, and Fidel Castro, who turns 80 on Sunday, will be
no exception. Whatever the outcome of the aging Cuban dictator's current
medical problems, the United States does need to prepare for the day
when the communist island just 90 miles from Florida has a new leader.

President George W. Bush allowed this week that he is hopeful that with
the change will come a new government in Havana. To that end, the United
States has increased its broadcasts to the island and urged anti-Castro
activists to push for reform. Some Cuban officials are warning about an
imminent U.S. invasion, not surprising, since they have spent
generations portraying Uncle Sam as a mortal enemy.

That is not going to happen, and the more immediate problem is likely to
be coming the other way.

South Florida could be hit with a new wave of Cuban refugees if the iron
fist of Castro's government relaxes -- or maybe even crumbles -- and it
suddenly becomes easier to get off the island. The United States needs
to discourage another dangerous exodus across the choppy waters.

To that end, the Department of Homeland Security is wisely readying some
relaxed immigration rules aimed at Cubans who will seize any opportunity
to reunite with families in the United States. Safe and legal traffic
should be the goal. About 10,000 Cubans are now awaiting visas to travel
to America.

The traffic going the other way will follow soon enough, and is more
likely to be economic. But the Untied States cannot expect Cuba to
transform magically into a paradise of capitalism and democracy, not
when 75% of the workforce is employed by the government and no central
banking system exists.

Fortunately, Cuba is not without resources that are in demand, including
nickel. Unfortunately, that means other nations will be competing with
the United States to influence the island's politics, raising the
possibility that Castro's successor will be someone just as bad, or even
worse.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060811/OPINION01/608110335/1068/OPINION