Democracy won't be easy in Cuba

From the Monday, August 7, 2006 issue:

Democracy won't be easy in Cuba

The news that Fidel Castro was having unspecified intestinal surgery
that caused him to hand over formal power to his brother Raul (who is
75) was so fraught with hope that Cuban-Americans in Miami's Little
Havana turned out for a massive street party.

That even a rumor of the 79-year-old dictator's imminent demise would
create a surge of joy among decent people is not surprising, but what
might a change of power in Cuba really mean? Would there just be "a new
boss, same as the old boss?"

Although he is little known outside Cuba -- and apparently doesn't have
a high profile inside Cuba either -- Raul Castro doesn't seem a likely
candidate to lead a movement toward freedom or democracy.

He has been his brother's right-hand man since the ouster of dictator
Fulgencio Batista in 1959.

Far less charismatic than Fidel, he is reportedly ruthlessly competent.
When Fidel deemed that executions, bloodshed and terrorizing latent
opposition were deemed necessary to consolidate his power, Raul
orchestrated it.

In the old days he was viewed as a more ideologically committed
communist than Fidel.

Mark Falcoff, author of the clear-eyed book, "Cuba, The Morning After:
Confronting Castro's Legacy," said several things are odd about the
current situation.

"The first is that Raul has not appeared in public. And I might have
thought they would have showed a photo of Fidel in the hospital bed
looking a little tired, perhaps, but doing just fine."

Whether Fidel is eventually replaced by Raul or by an anonymous
collective of gray generals, Mr. Falcoff doesn't expect dramatic
changes. When he visited a few years ago, even having pored over
economic statistics, he was shocked at how pervasive the poverty was,
especially outside Havana, and how the infrastructure has been allowed
to crumble.

The most entrepreneurial Cubans have fled the country and those who
remain have been indoctrinated for two generations in the evils of
capitalism. Even with a freer system, there would not seem to be much
willingness on which to build prosperity. One new influence, however,
might be from Cubans in Miami. But that's a long-shot.

Whatever happens, the U.S. government, which has put together a
"transition to democracy" project, would do well to tread lightly.

Beyond ending the economic embargo -- which has been a boon to Castro
all these years -- our government should have learned that planting
democracies in other countries is always more complicated and difficult
in reality than it is on paper.

http://www.sedaliademocrat.com/311890938681487.htm