Cuba without Castro: seeds of change finally sprouting

Cuba without Castro: seeds of change finally sprouting
The US and others must provide resources and information to post-Fidel Cuba.

By John Hughes
With Fidel Castro currently, and perhaps permanently, not controlling
events in Cuba, how should the United States react?

If there is one thing on which many Cuba-watchers seem to agree, it is
that we will not see a seamless succession to Mr. Castro's brother,
Raúl. With or without Raúl, a transition will take place, the shape of
which will involve changes not yet clear. As one Cuban-American with
good sources within Cuba puts it: "When you break an egg, you can make
fried egg or scrambled egg, but you cannot re-create the egg."

What the US would like to see is a dramatic shift away from dictatorial
rule, with Cuba emerging as a democracy with a robust free-market
economy. Though Iraq and Lebanon dominate the Bush administration's
foreign policy agenda, President Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice, and White House spokesman Tony Snow have all taken time to stress
this in public statements. Concern about Cuba's future has been
heightened in Washington since left-leaning Venezuelan leader Hugo
Chávez succeeded Russia as Cuba's patron and savior, finding common
political cause with Fidel, and propping up Cuba's ailing economy with
subsidized Venezuelan oil.

How can the US encourage reform and democracy in Cuba? First, by
encouraging a free information flow to a country whose citizens have
long been subjected by its government to censorship and propaganda.

I understand that TV-Marti and Radio Marti, the US government-sponsored
broadcasting entities that beam news to Cuba much as Radio Free Europe
did to the captive nations of Eastern Europe during the cold war, will
soon be operating on an extended basis from EC-130E/J Commando Solo
aircraft maintained by the US Air Force. This airborne delivery will
hopefully overcome Cuban jamming, which has prevented many Cubans from
watching and listening to these broadcast reports.

By this and other means, the US can support the dissidents in Cuba and
underline the atrocious human rights records of the Castro regime.

The US government has for some time been working on plans to not only
encourage the freedom movement in Cuba today, but to support a
democratic transition tomorrow. The Commission for Assistance to a Free
Cuba made initial recommendations in 2004 and, under the chairmanship of
Dr. Rice, updated them last month. Though some of the report's findings
are classified, others in the public domain include recommendations for
support to Cuba in the aftermath of transition. If needed and requested,
the US would provide humanitarian aid. It would help Cubans get to free
and fair elections and with reorganizing their economy.

State department planners are wisely counting on the international
community's involvement in hastening elections and accelerating Cuba's
reintegration into the world's economy. This would lend credibility to
the process. It should not be seen as a narrow, American go-it-alone
effort. The commission says Cubans living abroad could provide
"much-needed resources in the form of information, research, and
know-how, as well as remittances, loans, and investment capital." The
commission tiptoes around the tricky question of restoring confiscated
property to Cubans in exile. This, it says, must be settled by a new
elected government "enjoying widespread legitimacy with the Cuban people."

One imponderable in the process of transition would be the attitude of
the Cuban Army. Cubans close to the officer corps say it is politically
stratified by rank. The generals are revolutionary comrades of Castro,
dedicated to retaining their authority and perquisites. The colonels and
lieutenant colonels, usually trained by the Soviets, see themselves as
military professionals, possibly dutiful to civilian direction. The
captains and lieutenants resent the perks of their superiors, are
suspicious of communism and politics, and are more aware of the people's
discontent. Military officers at all levels are said to be concerned
about limited resources and obsolete equipment.

From his sickbed, Castro is purported to have declared his confidence
that the Cuban revolution he created will live on. While he wielded
repressive power for 47 years, his charisma fueled the revolution at
home and dazzled fellow dictators around the world. Now comes the time
of reckoning.

• John Hughes, a former editor of the Monitor, is editor and chief
operating officer of the Deseret Morning News.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0809/p09s01-cojh.html