After the Castros: 3 who may lead Cuba

After the Castros: 3 who may lead Cuba
By Gary Marx
Tribune foreign correspondent

August 3, 2006

HAVANA -- Two days after Cuban President Fidel Castro ceded power
following major surgery, Cuba has put in place a more collective style
of government that stands in stark contrast with Castro's singular
control over this island nation, according to analysts and experts.

While Castro has made every major decision during his 47-year rule, Raul
Castro, Fidel's younger brother and acting president, is known to be an
exacting leader who nonetheless consults others before acting.

Experts say this caretaker government provides a preview of what a
successor regime could be like should Fidel Castro fail to recover from
his current health crisis, and a glimpse of another generation that
could lead Cuba in coming years, even beyond the 75-year-old Raul Castro.

Directly below Raul Castro is another layer, widely expected to be the
future leaders of the Caribbean nation. They include Foreign Minister
Felipe Perez Roque, National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon and
Carlos Lage, the nation's economic czar. Perez Roque and Lage are more
than two decades younger than Castro.

"It will not be a single person dominating the government like we have
had in the past," predicted Wayne Smith, America's top diplomat in
Havana from 1979 to 1982 and now director of the Cuba program at the
Center for International Policy, a Washington think tank.

Smith said Raul Castro is likely to act as a sort of "chairman of the
board" presiding over other powerful figures, including Perez Roque,
Alarcon and Lage. The collective style of leadership reflects the widely
held belief that no single leader could succeed Fidel Castro, who
single-handedly reshaped his island nation.

There were no official updates Wednesday on Castro's medical condition,
which he described in a brief statement Tuesday as stable. Raul Castro
has not appeared publicly since Monday, when his elder brother stunned
the nation with the announcement that he needed complicated surgery for
gastrointestinal bleeding and ceded power for the first time.

Some experts suggested that Raul Castro would take his time before
appearing to ease the shock to Cubans that he is now heading the government.

Alarcon told the New York-based independent radio program "Democracy
Now!" that Castro was "very alive and very alert" after meeting with the
ailing leader Monday and Tuesday. "He is perfectly conscious, very good
speech as always," Alarcon said.

Castro's sister, Juanita Castro, who lives in Miami and has been
estranged from him since 1963, told CNN she had spoken with people in
Havana who told her that her brother had been released from intensive
care Wednesday morning, according to The Associated Press.

An eerie silence

But an eerie silence hung over Havana for a second day.

"This is the first time in my life that I'm afraid," said one Havana
resident. "People have been waiting 40 years for this and now we don't
know how to react."

Though Fidel Castro did not mention Alarcon in his statement
relinquishing power, he is among Cuba's most powerful officials, and his
ties to the Castros date to the 1959 revolution.

Affable, pragmatic and a fluent English speaker, the 69-year-old Alarcon
is Cuba's most experienced diplomat and has long managed relations with
the U.S.

In recent years, Alarcon has led Cuba's international campaign to free
five Cuban agents jailed in the United States. He also is spearheading
Cuba's response to a report by President Bush last month, in which he
pledged to boost funding for Cuba's tiny opposition movement while
withholding support for any post-Castro government that does not pledge
to hold early democratic elections.

Alarcon compared the Bush report to Adolf Hitler's "Mein Kampf,"
alleging it was genocidal and racist.

Despite his rhetoric, Alarcon is often described as a moderate who could
favor some liberalization to improve the economy even while remaining
loyal to its one-party system.

Perez Roque, a 41-year-old engineer, spent eight years as Fidel Castro's
top aide before becoming Cuba's foreign minister in 1999.

It was Perez Roque who famously stepped to the microphone and calmed the
crowd when Fidel Castro fainted during a speech in 2001. He shouted,
"Viva Raul!" and then, "Viva Fidel!"

Perez Roque has earned a reputation as a hard-liner wary of tinkering
with Cuba's socialist model. "He's a die-hard who does want to maintain
the system as it is," Smith said.

Creating collaborations

In his statement Monday, Fidel Castro named Perez Roque as one of three
officials responsible for budget matters for health, education and
energy, among the president's priorities. He also will continue his
foreign policy duties.

Lage, a 54-year-old former physician, is experienced in economic matters
and is credited with implementing limited reforms that rescued Cuba's
faltering economy in the 1990s after the Soviet Union's collapse.

Although Castro recently reversed the reforms, foreign businessmen in
Cuba describe Lage as a pragmatist who favors a more open economy.

Fidel Castro assigned Lage on Monday to help Perez Roque with the
budget, as well as the task of improving Cuba's electrical system, a
huge effort that has eased Cuba's once-chronic blackouts.

Raul Castro holds a variety of titles and wields great power, largely
out of the limelight. His main portfolio is the Cuban military, but he
has recently taken on responsibility for tourism, one of the nation's
most lucrative industries. Some analysts suggest that a government under
his guidance could steer Cuba toward a more Chinese-style model,
maintaining single-party rule but opening the economy.

Eusebio Mujal-Leon, a Cuba expert at Georgetown University, warned it
could be difficult for Raul Castro and the others to sustain a
collective leadership should Fidel Castro not return. He said
differences are likely to emerge over policy, and strains could be
exacerbated by personal ambitions.

But Hans de Salas, a researcher at the University of Miami's Institute
for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, said the senior leaders all were
handpicked by Fidel Castro and lack the authority to shift policy or
challenge Raul Castro.

Senior Cuban officials also understand the survival of Cuba's one-party
system requires unity even if they differ on some issues, de Salas said.

"They know that in this case unity is of the essence and guaranteeing
that unity is the armed forces," he said. "Behind the scenes, the
ultimate power broker is not the civilians but the military."

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gmarx@tribune.com

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