On the cusp of a new social contract?
BY MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE
MarifeliPerez-Stable.com
In April 2011, the Cuban Communist Party will finally hold its congress,
almost 14 years since the last one. Only in wartime did the Communist
Parties in the Soviet Union, China and Vietnam delay their congresses.
Stalin didn't hold one for 13 years after 1939, Mao -- not yet in power
-- let 17 years go by before calling one in 1945 and the Vietnamese met
regularly only after the North-South reunification of 1976.
Since 1997, Cuba hasn't experienced anything like World War II or the
Vietnam War. After assuming the presidency in February 2008, Raúl Castro
announced the congress for late 2009. Subsequently he said that more
time was needed to get economic policy just right. On Nov. 9, Castro at
last made it official, even if the reasons for the long delay have never
been publicly recognized.
By the mid-1990s, the modest reforms issued earlier in the decade hit a
wall. In 1995, Fidel Castro said: ``All openings have entailed risks. If
we have to carry out more reforms, we will do so. For the time being
they are unnecessary.'' By 2003, retrenchment and recentralization had
won the day. In late 2005, he warned that forsaking socialist ideals or
letting markets loose would doom the revolution.
When he fell ill in 2006, Castro divvied up his responsibilities: Raúl
became interim successor, and six others assumed other tasks. In so
doing, the comandante revealed his penchant for bypassing institutions.
Healthcare, education and energy, for example, fall within the purview
of various ministries. Castro, however, had established special programs
in these areas that only he supervised. Funds for their activities,
moreover, weren't assigned through institutional channels: Castro
himself sought them directly from the Central Bank.
Shortly after his brother's illness, Raúl emphasized la
institucionalidad, the notion that institutions matter. Not an
earth-shaking proposition but one that sent a clear signal: The days of
abrupt twists and turns were over. Last August, he told the National
Assembly: ``We must forever banish the idea that Cuba be the only
country in the world where people can live without working.''
If that's an astounding admission, so is the goal of laying off 500,000
workers from the state payroll by next April.
At least another half million will subsequently find themselves holding
pink slips. Alternative sources of employment such as cooperatives and
self-employment should absorb most of the unemployed.
Cuban leaders are more addicted than most to politically correct
rhetoric. Thus, the unemployed are los disponibles (available ones) and
the economic reforms are just an ``updating'' of the Cuban model. The
socioeconomic guidelines that the party congress will duly approve
insist on state command of the economy and an uncompromised equality. If
you're thinking squaring the circle, so am I.
Cuba may be on the cusp of a new social contract. If the reforms take
off, ordinary Cubans will be more responsible for their own well-being
than at any time since 1959.
Eliminating subsidies, reducing social expenditures, hiring other Cubans
and paying taxes require a wholesale transformation of their mind-sets.
Many would thrive, others would not.
Raúl Castro and his cohorts also need to change their ways. As of Nov.
19, more than 80,000 citizens had applied for self-employment licenses:
35 percent obtained them, 15 percent are pending and half were denied.
In 2011, the government plans to purchase $130 million in goods to be
sold to the self-employed. In retrospect, we might look back and see a
crossroads: for the first time, economic policies played themselves out,
without anyone cutting them short. Along the way, Cuban leaders began to
grasp the wisdom of the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping's maxim: ``It
doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches
mice.''
While visiting China in 2003, Fidel Castro said: ``I can't really be
sure just what kind of a China I am visiting.'' In China recently,
Ricardo Alarcón, president of Cuba's national assembly, noted: ``Cuba is
prepared to take advantage of China's experience of development in
reform and opening.''
If we see Cuban leaders trying to square the circle, all bets are off.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/12/02/1953045/on-the-cusp-of-a-new-social-contract.html
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