Post-Fidel era has begun

Post-Fidel era has begun
26/09/2006 14:27 - (SA)

Havana - No matter whether Fidel Castro returns to office or not,
diplomats and dissidents say the post-Fidel era has already begun and
some foresee an ideological tug of war between "tropical Taliban" and
proponents of Chinese-style economic reforms.

Castro, 80, handed over power to his brother Raul, 75, on July 31 after
undergoing emergency surgery for intestinal bleeding blamed on overwork.

While officials said the elder Castro was recovering well, he was too
ill to make an appearance the recent summit of 116 Third World countries
in Havana.

The Castro brothers hold world records for years in power: Fidel is the
world's longest-serving head of government, Raul the longest-serving
defence minister - both 47 years.

Future without Fidel

"It is difficult to envisage Fidel running the country as he used to,
and with the same vigor," said a Latin American diplomat.

"He is on the way to becoming a symbol and a figurehead."

More than 70% of Cuba's 11 million population were born after Fidel
Castro seized power in 1959 and tend to be reluctant to talk about a
future without him. But a number of dissidents speak out frankly and on
the record.

"Cuba has not been the same since July 31," said Miriam Leiva, a
co-founder of the Ladies in White, a group of women whose husbands were
arrested, tried and convicted in a large-scale crackdown on dissidents
three years ago.

Her husband, economist Oscar Espinosa Chepe, was released for health
reasons 19 months later. Most of the others are still in prison and the
Ladies in White stage a silent protest march every Sunday. Espinosa
Chepe and Leiva aired their views in an interview in their tiny
apartment in Havana.

Both see economic reforms managed by the Cuban armed forces headed by
Raul Castro as the best hope for the near future, a sentiment echoed
privately by many Cubans who tend to complain more vociferously about
economic misery than the political system.

Tropical Taliban

"What would be disastrous would be for the tropical Taliban to run the
country," Espinosa Chepe said. The phrase refers to a younger generation
of officials mentored personally by Fidel Castro.

To hear Cubans tell it, the list of true believers includes Otto Rivero,
vice president of the council of ministers for the battle of ideas,
Hassan Perez, vice president of the union of communists, Miriam Yanet
Martin, president of the Jose Marti pioneers youth group and foreign
minister Felipe Perez Roque.

They are all in their 30s and early 40s and their views are reflected by
a banner along Havana's fabled Malecon seafront boulevard. "Fidel
Forever!" it says.

The true believers versus potential economic reformers scenario has
gained so much currency it prompted questions at a news conference
during the non-aligned summit that ended on Saturday.

Economy minister Jose Luis, responding to a reporter's question, said:
"In the hypothetical case that Comandante Fidel remains ill, would there
be a change in Cuban policy toward a market opening? I can categorically
say that is not foreseen, the Cuban people do not want that."

Economic reforms

Castro initiated a limited economic opening in the early 1990s but
rolled it back three years ago, cutting licenses for services that
private individuals can provide, including clowns and masseurs.

The armed forces were the first to introduce capitalist business
practices into Cuba and now control technology and computing firms,
beach resort hotels, car rental firms, an airline, a fleet of buses and
a large retail chain.

The Cuban sugar industry is run by a general, as is the ports
administration and the lucrative cigar industry.

"It is difficult to see political change but Raul will have to introduce
economic reforms if he wants to avoid a social explosion," said Espinosa
Chepe, the dissident economist.

"The armed forces are the best organised entity in the country and much
more flexible than any other."

Outside experts agree the armed forces would be a better agent of
change, if it were to come, than any other institution.

"Unlike the communist party, the armed forces are widely popular," said
Hal Klepak, a history professor at the Royal Military Institute of
Canada and author of a book on the Cuban military.

US attitudes

Change in Havana, diplomats say, depends to a considerable degree on
attitudes in Washington and Miami, where Cuban exiles have been
relentlessly hostile toward Castro and instrumental in maintaining a
44-year-old economic boycott of Cuba.

Critics of the embargo, including prominent dissidents, see it as a
chief reason for Castro's long survival.

"Without it, he wouldn't have been able to foster nationalism the way he
did. Without it, he couldn't have blamed the U.S. for his disastrous
policies," said Espinosa Chepe.

Most of the world agrees. The embargo is regularly put to a vote at the
United Nations. Last year, the margin was 182 in favour of a resolution
to end the embargo, four against. 77

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