Same old guard pulling the strings
Posted on Thu, Feb. 28, 2008
BY MARIFELI PEREZ-STABLE
mps_opinion@comcast.net
What happened in Havana on Sunday reminded me of Moscow in the early
1980s. After Leonid Brezhnev's passing, two old men -- first, the more
open-minded Yuri Andropov, then the mummified Konstantin Chernenko --
ruled the Soviet Union. Not until 1985 did the youthful Mikhail
Gorbachev take the Kremlin's reins. The rest is history.
In retrospect, it wasn't that surprising. Given the Castro brothers'
obsession with ''unity'' and control, political reforms -- even within
official Cuba's limited confines -- are rare. The last time they
''opened up'' a bit was in the early 1990s when, for example, direct
elections to the National Assembly were first held, and the Constitution
was modified to loosen somewhat the state's economic control.
Still, I expected a mixed bag, not an unequivocally conservative Council
of State. Understandably, Raúl incorporated men he trusts. For decades,
now first vice president José Ramón Machado Ventura has been by his
side, the Communist Party's fixer of last resort. Gen. Julio Casas
Regueiro, promoted to vice president and to Raúl's old post as defense
minister, has overseen the military's considerable economic holdings. So
much for the under-60 generations, at least for now. No country for
young men, noted a European diplomat.
Indifferent, frustrated
My disappointment is inconsequential. What Cubans on the island felt
when the old guard was reaffirmed is not. The under-60 crowd within the
elite is still waiting. Proposed constitutional amendments to allow
different individuals to preside over the Councils of State and
Ministers -- Raúl assumed both -- fell by the wayside. Ordinary Cubans
are seemingly indifferent or frustrated.
All the same, let's not rush to final judgment. A new Council of
Ministers hasn't been named yet and probably won't be until the end of
2008. In his inaugural speech, Raúl announced a state reorganization to
streamline the bureaucracy and cut the red tape. He addressed sensitive
economic issues such as food production and the grossly devalued peso.
Noteworthy as well was his mention of the libreta, the ration book
whereby Cubans of all income levels purchase subsidized goods. Cuban
economists have long criticized the libreta's absurdity.
Is Fidel still pulling the strings? While the easiest answer is a
categorical Yes, I wouldn't accept at face value Raúl's request to the
National Assembly that he be allowed to seek his brother's advice on
important matters. It could mean that the elder Castro will still wield
a veto, or it could be a public massage of his uncontainable ego.
Undoing nearly five decades of mostly one-man rule is no easy matter. By
streamlining the bureaucracy, Raúl hopes to imprint his style --
institutional and orderly -- which means allowing ministers to be
ministers. No more parallel networks that Fidel used to supervise the
ministries, the National Assembly, the party or whatever struck his
fancy. On Sunday, Raúl was emphatic about la institucionalidad, the
importance of institutions.
Even under a reinforced old guard, Cuba has started to move away from
the Comandante. Raúl and his inner circle of mostly military men will
not brook a political opposition, but more voices will be heard from
within the elite. The Council of State and the National Assembly might
live up to their constitutional mandates. The Communist Party will
continue to set policy, only now in more institutional, orderly fashion.
The party congress that Fidel long refused to convene will likely happen
soon. Raúl should then take over from his brother as general secretary.
Unintended consequences
More prickly is the economy, where almost any reform, however modest, is
a substantive move from Fidel's recalcitrance. Yet, there's no way out
but through the market, even at a snail's pace. The peso, for instance,
will not gain in value without improving economic productivity, which,
in the end, requires sustained respect for the market.
One step at a time was Sunday's message. Only results must be in
evidence quickly for expectations have too often been raised and
deflated. Cuban blogger Yoaní Sánchez characterized the old guard as
dwelling in a bucólico letargo. Better lethargic change than suffer the
old Soviet Union's fate, their thinking probably goes. Are they really
so confident that things will forever go on as usual? It'd be poetic
justice if their conservatism quickened the pace of events. Unintended
consequences could be pesky indeed.
Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the
Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and a professor at Florida
International University.
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