Tue Dec 4, 2007 6:06pm EST
By Anthony Boadle
HAVANA (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's unprecedented
defeat in a referendum is a wake-up call for Communist ally Cuba, which
has come to rely heavily on the firebrand socialist leader, Cuba
watchers say.
Chavez has kept the Cuban economy afloat with vital shipments of 92,000
barrels of oil per day, an estimated bill of $3 billion a year that
cash-strapped Cuba pays for with medical and other services.
The man he calls his ideological father, ailing Cuban leader Fidel
Castro, congratulated Chavez on his "dignified" concession speech in a
note published in Cuba on Tuesday, two days after Venezuelans rejected
Chavez's effort to run indefinitely for president.
But Castro, who has not appeared in public for 16 months, repeated his
concerns about Chavez's future and safety, warning the Venezuelan leader
that he is exposing himself to an assassin's bullet by riding too often
in open vehicles.
Experts on Cuba said the referendum upset is further notice to Cuba's
leaders that they must look for alternative sources of support because
the Venezuelan lifeline is not eternal.
"The Cubans have always feared that one day -- and rather suddenly --
Chavez might disappear," said Frank Mora, a professor at the National
War College in Washington. "They have done everything possible to find
alternative sources of oil."
Venezuela held out a hand to Cuba in the direst time of its post-Soviet
crisis, and trade between the two allies has grown to $7 billion a year,
Castro noted.
Cuban officials declined to comment on the significance for their
country of a defeat that curbed Chavez's plans to speed up his socialist
revolution in Venezuela.
"Chavez will continue as president until 2013, so we have time to think
about this," Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque told reporters on
Monday.
Cuba's dependence on Chavez became evident during a failed coup that
almost toppled Chavez in 2002 when his opponents immediately announced
an end to oil supplies to Cuba before they had secured their hold on power.
Cuba has signed risk contracts with seven oil companies to explore its
Gulf of Mexico waters, where Spain's Repsol found noncommercial
quantities of light oil in 2004. No new drilling is expected until the
end of next year.
Cuba is negotiating with Angola, Russia and other countries to find
perhaps more stable and predictable sources of energy, even though the
terms will not be as sweet, Mora said.
"They will be hard pressed to find someone who will give Cuba the kind
of deal Chavez is giving them. Who is willing to provide Cuba with $3
billion worth of free oil?" he said.
With high oil prices bolstering Chavez's populism, one expert believes
Cuba still has time to prepare for life without him.
"The Cubans always knew that Hugo Chavez would eventually reach his
limits in both political and economic terms," said Dan Erikson, of the
Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington think tank.
"Politically, Chavez can go no further than the Venezuelan voters allow,
unless he completely breaks with democratic practice," Erikson said.
"Economically, Chavez's success is ultimately dependent on the price of
oil."
(Editing by Stuart Grudgings)
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN0441111220071204?sp=true
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