February 11, 2007
After Castro dies, will there be chaos or calm?
Unsure of what to plan for, officials hope for a measured response but
fear a mass migration out of and into Cuba.
By Scott Gold, Times Staff Writer
MIAMI — Ramon Saul Sanchez has put out the call: "Get ready. We're going
to Cuba."
Sanchez, 52, the founder of a Miami group called the Democracy Movement,
or Movimiento Democracia, has led flotillas toward Cuba's territorial
water to protest the regime of Fidel Castro and what he believes is
deeply flawed U.S. policy toward the island nation.
When Castro dies, he said, he plans to sail for the island with
generators, medicine and other supplies — and bring word that "freedom
is on its way."
Military leaders, law enforcement officials and aid organizations
preparing for the Cuban leader's death are hoping for a calm and
measured response on both sides of the Florida Straits.
They are well aware, however, that Castro's death could lead to a
turbulent series of events — even an international incident, they fear,
if Sanchez and other Cuban American leaders in South Florida sail for
the island in large numbers.
Knowing the passion that Castro evokes — passion that could overwhelm
even the best planning — officials are unsure whether they should be
preparing for chaos or calm, or something in between.
"We've been waiting a long time for this. Realistically, anything can
happen," said Andy S. Gomez, an assistant provost at the University of
Miami and a senior fellow at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American
Studies. Gomez has briefed federal officials on the spectrum of events
that could unfold after Castro's death.
It has been six months since Castro, 80, underwent emergency intestinal
surgery and provisionally ceded power to Raul Castro, 75, his brother
and defense minister. Recent footage released by the Cuban government
appeared to show that Fidel Castro had regained strength and weight. But
reports that he is in "grave" condition, coupled with U.S. intelligence
officials' grim appraisals of his health, have prompted authorities to
put preparations in overdrive.
Officials in South Florida believe a composed response to Castro's death
is most likely.
In that scenario, Raul Castro would seamlessly maintain control through
a blend of modest economic reform and political tactics. On the island,
he would be seen as the face of a brighter future, giving Cubans little
reason to flee. In Florida, Cuban Americans would demonstrate and
celebrate — the largest event would probably be held at the
80,000-person-capacity Orange Bowl — but would generally heed calls for
restraint.
But upheaval is possible. In what officials perceive as the worst case,
the Cuban government would collapse, prompting a dangerous mass
migration out of and into Cuba. Cubans fleeing the island and Cuban
Americans trying to get in from Florida could meet in the middle of the
Straits, creating a crisis that could overwhelm rescuers and further
erode the stability of Latin America.
"You want to plan. You don't want to have to put the plans in motion,"
said Sam Tidwell, chief executive of the American Red Cross of Greater
Miami & the Keys and a leader in the effort to prepare for Castro's death.
Law enforcement officials are holding tabletop exercises of emergency
plans and laying the groundwork to restrict the sale of gasoline in
Florida or to close marinas so Cuban Americans can't make a run for the
island. On Spanish-language radio stations, authorities are pleading
with Cuban Americans to stay home.
Military officials believe that if American activists try to get to
Cuba, they will disrupt the official response to Castro's death and
perhaps put more strain on relations between Cuba and the United States.
If even a single Cuban American group tried to make its way to the
island, "it would be a very serious risk," said Marielena A. Villamil, a
member of the American Red Cross board of directors and an owner of an
economic consulting firm in Coral Gables, Fla.
"We don't know what the situation will be in Cuba," said Villamil, who
is also involved in preparations for Castro's death. "Would they be
welcomed with open arms? Or with arms — weapons?"
A network of aid groups, meanwhile, is preparing to help reunite
families, coordinate donations and care for refugees in the event of an
exodus from Cuba to the United States.
Delicate tasks could lie ahead in Florida.
For instance, some officials have debated whether Castro's death could
force them to alter the "wet-foot, dry-foot" immigration policy, which
typically repatriates Cubans interdicted at sea but generally allows
those who reach U.S. soil to stay.
If the policy were altered, the federal government could find itself
detaining refugees who made it to the United States, Tidwell said. At
that point, the Red Cross, founded as a neutral caregiver, would be
prohibited by its bylaws from providing any assistance, he said.
"We can be helpful in places where people are being processed but not
where people are being detained," Tidwell said. "If there are political
decisions being made — if people are no longer free to go — we pull out."
The bulk of preparations in the U.S. for Castro's death aims to ensure
that is not an issue — by preventing any mass migration.
Authorities are planning extensive water patrols to stop boaters trying
to reach the United States. Most refugees would be returned to Cuba,
either to a port or to Guantanamo Bay, a U.S. naval base, where military
officials would house them in large tents or other temporary structures
until they could return home.
Communication, coordination between government agencies, and
intelligence inside Cuba, among other factors, are much improved since
officials were caught off-guard by the Mariel boatlift of 1980, which
brought an estimated 125,000 Cubans to Florida.
"We've learned quite a bit," said Miami-Dade County Assistant Fire Chief
Carlos J. Castillo. "I don't see anything approaching Mariel."
Authorities believe Raul Castro would probably view a large exodus after
his brother's death as a discrediting sign of dissent within his regime,
and would probably deploy the military to prohibit it. They also believe
that the response to Castro's death could be muted because the
transition between the brothers has brought little sign of unrest.
Through intelligence sources, U.S. officials are monitoring signs of
boat building in Cuba and have found no evidence of an increase, said
Coast Guard Lt. Cmdr. Chris O'Neil.
"The passing of Fidel Castro, in and of itself, is not going to create a
mass migration," he said.
Others disagree. Some involved in the preparations worry that there
won't be enough boats to police the Florida Straits. Others question
whether Raul Castro has the clout or the charisma to hold Cuba together.
Gomez, of the University of Miami, predicts that 500,000 people will
head for Florida within a year of Castro's death.
"We do not have the infrastructure to handle that kind of migration," he
said. "You will see a large humanitarian crisis."
Over lunch in Miami's Little Havana, Ramon Saul Sanchez outlined his
group's plans. A businessman has donated the use of 400 feet of dock
space on the Miami River, he said, from which Sanchez plans to launch
boats toward Cuba, including a ferry that can carry 50 passengers to the
island, as well as 20 tons of cargo.
He has two cargo planes on call and is amassing supplies at a large
storage space, he said.
Sanchez believes Cuba's government may collapse after Castro dies. With
the communist government in control of so many functions, such as food
distribution, that could mean a collapse of civic structure, Sanchez said.
Therefore, he said, the only way to avoid a migration from Cuba is to go
to the island immediately after Castro's death, against the wishes of
both nations' militaries and government leaders, with supplies and a
message of hope.
"What we intend to do helps the U.S. interest, because it diminishes the
chance of a mass exodus to the United States," he said.
"We have moral leverage, and we intend to use it."
http://www.latimes.com/wireless/avantgo/la-na-castro11feb11,0,4403736.story
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