Rich Economic Future Seen in Post-Castro Cuba

Rich Economic Future Seen in Post-Castro Cuba
By Brian Wagner
Washington
15 June 2006

Some Cuban-Americans and U.S. business owners have been waiting years
for the possible fall of Communism in Cuba and the re-opening of the
island's economy. Experts say the investment opportunities are almost
limitless, after decades of neglect and a U.S. embargo. Even after Fidel
Castro, serious legal and political obstacles may remain in Cuba.

Less than 200 kilometers separate the island of Cuba from mainland
United States, but the nations remain far apart on many issues.
Political relations were severed decades ago, and travel and economic
activity between the nations are strictly limited. All that could
change, however, when Castro dies or hands over power, according to
experts at a conference called "A Future and Free Cuba" held by the
Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce and the University of Miami's
Institute of Cuban and Cuban-American Studies.

There is no indication the 79-year-old leader is going anywhere soon,
but the island's future is always on the minds of Miami's large Cuban
exile community

Some experts at the conference predict that Fidel's brother, Raul, will
take power in Havana and gradually open the economy to foreign
investment and local business, as occurred in China. Others say radical
political upheaval is more likely, fed by years of discontent,
especially among Cuba's youth. No matter what the political future
holds, Andy Gomez, a senior fellow at the Cuba institute, says the
economic possibilities are enormous. "There really is no limitation. I
think the first economic opportunity, once it's allowed under a Raul
secession government, is going to be in the tourism industry. Then the
other key area is how to build the infrastructure of Cuba, the roads,
transportation system, airlines, schools and housing," he said.

The oil sector is another area of possible investment, since the recent
discovery of millions of barrels of oil off Cuba's northern coast. Other
businesses are interested in gaining access to the island's population
of nearly 12 million as a new consumer base. Ariel Melchor of Associated
Grocers of Florida says he expects major growth in food imports to the
island, which has very limited supplies of beef, dairy and other
products. "We all know that for the Cuban people there's nothing there
available when it comes to food. The tourists, they have everything that
is available. So I think it's going to be a big opportunity, especially
for the people in Cuba," he said.

While the end of the Fidel Castro regime could open the door to outside
investment, experts say it could also create more political and economic
freedoms for Cuban people. Brian Latell, a senior research associate at
the University of Miami's Cuba institute and the author of a new book
called "After Fidel," says the changes may allow Cubans to open small
businesses and begin making profits for themselves. "They would be
taxed, they would be under heavy control. But I think as a result they
would begin to feel more of an ability, an opportunity to earn money, to
be in small enterprise," he said.

Some of the conference participants noted they have been studying the
possibility of political transformation in Cuba for years, and not much
has changed in that time. Even after 47 years in office, Fidel Castro
has shown little sign of relaxing his hold on power. Miami lawyer Pedro
Freyre warns that a big concern will continue to be Cuba's lack of legal
protections for private business and private property. "Until you have a
framework in Cuba that gives us a level, a measure of comfort, that
there is some kind of legal mechanism that guarantees private property
rights, then it is fool's gold (a risky investment)," he said.

Many expect a post-Castro government would begin relaxing some of its
tight controls, but Freyre adds that some U.S. laws would have to be
changed as well. American businesses are currently barred from operating
in Cuba, and existing laws also limit the kinds of activities that firms
could have under a transition or post-Castro government in Havana.

Experts agree that Cuba's government and its relations with the United
States will change dramatically once Fidel Castro dies or leaves office,
but when that will happen is anyone's guess.

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