Raúl may look past Venezuela for oil
While relations between Cuba and Venezuela are expected to remain
friendly, experts said Raúl Castro may seek to end the island's
dependence on Hugo Chávez's oil.
Posted on Wed, Feb. 20, 2008
BY CASTO OCANDO
El Nuevo Herald
Fidel Castro's resignation and the likely rise of his brother Raúl will
not mean visible changes in Cuban-Venezuelan relations, but could have
important repercussions for the government of Hugo Chávez in the short
run, analysts say.
Venezuela will continue to be a strategic priority for Havana, thanks to
the supply of 93,000 barrels of crude oil and derivatives a day, but the
heavy dependence on energy is increasingly seen as a vulnerability
unacceptable to a pragmatic leader like Raúl Castro.
At the same time, relations between Cuban and Venezuelan military men,
which during Fidel Castro's era were frequently tinged with political
and ideological activism, will enter a phase of strict professional
cooperation, mostly because of the lack of ''chemistry'' between Raúl
Castro and Chávez, experts said.
''Publicly, there will be no changes and no signs of disagreement
between Havana and Caracas,'' said Eugenio Yáñez, an analyst and author
of numerous books on Cuba's nomenklatura, ''but there are signs that
Raúl Castro is looking to expand relations with other countries that
could serve him as energy sources'' in the event that Chávez cannot
continue to send oil to the island.
According to Professor Jorge Piñón, a Cuban expert at the University of
Miami's Center for Hemispheric Policy, if the supply of Venezuelan oil
stops, Cuba ``would have barely 17 days of oil derivatives in storage
and 35 days of crude.''
With Fidel Castro offstage, Piñón said, Raúl Castro will likely open the
door to energy accords with Brazil, not only to expand plans for
deep-water exploration for oil, but also to produce ethanol from sugar cane.
To Rafael Huizi Clavier, Venezuela's former armed forces inspector
general, Fidel Castro's absence will change particularly military
relations between the island and Venezuela.
''The meetings of Venezuelan military men with Fidel were political
meetings, with a lot of ideological influence, a lot of propaganda. With
Raúl, things are different. There is more talk about professional
topics, without reference to political themes,'' Clavier said.
Casto Ocando can be reached at cocando@herald.com
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