2007-11-02.
Cuba Transition Project
Mass migration has long been a favored policy in Havana, used both as an
escape valve to relieve the periodic build-up of internal socio-economic
pressures (e.g., the so-called Balsero - rafter - exodus at the height
of the post-Soviet Special Period in the early 1990s) and as an
aggressive foreign policy tactic shrewdly employed to embarass and bring
Washington to the negotiating table, on Cuba's terms.
While the White House and Pentagon may no longer harbor conventional
concerns about the Cuban military as an adversary in a Cold War
struggle, the efficacy of mass migration as a foreign policy weapon
seems to be substantiated by Washington's current worst nightmare when
it comes to Cuba: a mass influx of Cuban migrants overwhelming southern
Florida and leading to a humanitarian crisis of international
dimensions, on land or at sea.
The human and economic consequences, especially for U.S. state and local
governments, would be sufficient to warrant genuine concern. Moreover,
given the post-September 11 priorities about homeland security and the
contemporary division within U.S. society on the question of immigration
in general, the arrival of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Cubans
over a short period of time is a scenario that any U.S. administration
would like to avoid at all costs. Yet, quietly but increasingly evident,
a new mass migration out of Castro's Cuba may be in progress.
In the past two years, more Cubans have found their way into the United
States than during the Balsero crisis in the summer of 1994. At that
time, upwards of 38,000 men, women, and children were intercepted and
rescued in the perilous waters of the Florida Straits by the U.S. Coast
Guard. As part of the Clinton administration's 1995 migration accords
with the Cuban government, they were ultimately resettled in the U.S.
after infamous months at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo, Cuba. A
decade later and largely without the high-seas drama of that crisis, as
of fiscal years (FY) 2006 and 2007 (approximately from October 2005
through September 2007) nearly 77,000 Cubans are known to have reached
American territory, or more than twice the total of the 1994 Balsero
refugees (see Table I).
Under the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966, virtually all Cuban nationals
who land upon U.S. soil are legally entitled to remain in the country
and to seek permanent resident status (i.e., a "Green Card") upon
fulfilling 366 days of continuous physical presence in the United
States. On the basis of U.S. Homeland Security data on new legal
permanent residents by country of origin each fiscal year rather than
the more typically consulted U.S. Coast Guard statistics on intercepted
Cuban migrants, Table II reveals that emigration from the island into
the U.S. has reached levels not seen since the peak years of the late
1960s and early 1970s.
In fact, more Cubans are now entering the United States - legally and
otherwise - than at any other time since the Freedom Flights of the
mid-1960s through the early 1970s. Contrary to conventional opinion
about the historic magnitude of the Balsero exodus (~40,000) and the
Mariel Boatlift (~125,000), since FY 2000 upwards of 191,000 Cubans have
started new lives in the U.S., eclipsing the combined migrations of 1980
and 1994. At the current average annual inflow (since FY 2005) of
approximately 38,000 new migrants per year, the U.S. will have received
267,000 new Cuban immigrants by the end of FY 2009. Should the
projections hold, the present era will surpass both the 1960s and 1970s
(see Table II) in terms of total Cuban migration to the U.S. in any
decade since the triumph of the revolution in 1959.
If we include total post-Soviet immigration from the island (FY 1990
through projected FY 2009), more than 426,000 Cubans will have resettled
in the United States, a figure that rivals the 458,000-strong generation
of historic (pre-1980) exiles.
Seemingly unnoticed by the media and policymakers alike, the U.S. is
witnessing a deluge of migration from Cuba. Moreover, the trend appears
to be escalating rather than declining. Cubans now account for 3.6
percent (45,614 in FY 2006) of all new permanent residents, up from 2.1
percent in FY 2004 (20,488), and now behind only Mexico, China, the
Philippines, and India.[1] Considering that Cubans have every incentive
to acquire permanent resident status as soon as possible, the Homeland
Security data essentially captures the size of annual Cuban migration
flows into the U.S. Moreover, the data in Tables I and II are lagging
indicators since Homeland Security statistics refer to the number of
Green Cards issued in a given year. Assuming a one to two-year
processing time for permanent resident applications, the FY 2006 data
(FY 2007 data are preliminary figures based on known arrivals, [2]) more
likely represent those Cubans who physically arrived in the U.S.
sometime between 2004 and 2005.
Consequently, it is probable that the slow pace of post-Special Period
socio-economic recovery and a lack of hope, especially among younger
Cubans, for substantive political and economic change under Raul Castro
will be reflected in even higher statistics in the coming years. It is
also evident that Cuban authorities are doing little to curb the
doubling of emigration since FY 2004. Tacitly if not overtly, the Castro
regime once again appears to be turning to mass migration as its policy
of choice to both deflate mounting dissatisfaction at home and arguably
set the stage for more favorable negotiating terms in its relations with
Washington.
Table I
A New Exodus: Cuban Migrants, 2004-2007*
FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007** Total
20,488 36,261 45,614 31,312 133,675
Source: *Kelley Jefferys, "U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2006," Annual
Flow Report (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, March 2007). The data
represent legal permanent resident status granted to Cuban citizens and
their dependents per U.S. government fiscal year (October 1-September
30), not calendar year. **For FY 2007, the figure represents a
conservative estimate based only on publicly disclosed data, including
authorized immigration visas granted within Cuba by the U.S. Interests
Section in Havana, Cubans taken into custody upon entering U.S.
territory, and Cubans requesting asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border.
However, the actual number of Cubans who entered the U.S. in 2006-2007
may be significantly larger. Cf. Reuters, "Illegal flow of Cubans to
U.S. on the rise," October 1, 2007.
Table II
Cuban Migration to the United States, 1950-2006*
1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2006 Total
73,221 202,030 256,497 132,552 159,037 160,133 983,470
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Yearbook of Immigration
Statistics, 2006. *Note: The data represent Cuban citizens and their
dependents who obtained legal permanent resident status (i.e., were
issued a "Green Card") per the U.S. government's fiscal calendar (FY).
Annual figures have been grouped into decades.
_________________________________________________
Notes
1. See Kelley Jefferys, "U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2006," Annual
Flow Report (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, March 2007), p. 3.
2. Anthony Boadle, "Illegal flow of Cubans to U.S. on the rise,"
Reuters, Havana, October 1 , 2007.
************
An Information Service of the
Cuba Transition Project
Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies
University of Miami
Issue 89
November 2, 2007 Staff Report
http://www.miscelaneasdecuba.net/web/article.asp?artID=12466
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