Friday, February 16, 2007

Even when Fidel Castro dies, little will change for average Cubans

Even when Fidel Castro dies, little will change for average Cubans

THERE are not many Cubans prepared to use the D word in reference to Fidel Castro, but Angela, a medic in her late twenties, has no fear. "He is practically a dictator, but Cuban people don't see that," she said. "The idea in this country is control all that matters."

Four years ago, Angela who is understandably not fearless enough to give her real name applied to leave and start a new life in America. Serious illness may have forced the Maximum Leader into the background, but she is not changing her plans. "I don't want to leave but I have no choice," she said sadly at her simple home in the capital. Havanans are so accustomed to Fidel as he is invariably called that some inadvertently talk about if he dies, not when. The aura of immortality around the 80-year-old, who has survived the ill-wishes of 10 US presidents, has only been fortified by his slow recovery from intestinal difficulties that wags on the Havana's diplomatic circuit call Castro-enteritis, and which required major surgery and his very probably permanent withdrawal from public life.

As people such as Angela know, his eventual demise will not bring the change in direction craved by Washington and the aggressive Cuban exile community 90 miles across the Straits of Florida, who forecast popular clamour for elections and parliamentary government.

In the six months since he was incapacitated, the regime has already pulled off what its enemies have long said would be impossible: they have built a post-Castro communist system. The only difference is that, instead of being led by a single person, Cuba is led by that single person's brother, Raul, who chairs a group of ministers.

When Russian support and a $4-6 billion annual subsidy disappeared with the Soviet Union, Cuba felt very alone, but that is no longer the case. At 75, Raul follows the old Soviet model of an unknown septuagenarian as successor. His few comments since being appointed acting president suggest an awareness that the economy is in dire need of modernisation. Cubans have health and education systems that compare favourably with the developing world's, but the people are dirt poor. The four-hour speeches and constant warnings of imperialistic threats will not be emulated.

Those Miami exiles who rather tastelessly planned street parties last month, when the word went around that their nemesis was on his death bed, will need to put their celebrations on ice. Democracy will, like Dictator, remain an unmentionable D word in Cuba for some time.

Paul Righter

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=45&si=1775982&issue_id=15250

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