CUBA
Change from Fidel to Raúl is a-coming
BY MICHAEL PUTNEY
mputney@local0.com
We are witnessing important changes in Havana and Washington. Small,
nuanced changes that may not mean much individually, but collectively
they point to the possibility of positive, if modest, improvements in
relations between the two countries. That's a siren song we have all
heard before, but the evidence is there. And it's not just based on my
impression of recent events, but those of Cuba experts whose judgment I
trust, hard-eyed realists not given to Pollyanna-ish views.
I'm talking about people like Brian Latell, former lead CIA analyst on
Cuba and now a research associate at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban
American Studies at the University of Miami; Teo Babun, a Cuba-born
business consultant who prepares for some of the Forbes 100 companies
minutely detailed reports on Cuba's infrastructure and the people who
manage it; and Damian Fernandez, director of the Cuban Research
Institute at Florida International University.
''The real story out of Cuba is the lack of change over the last seven
months,'' says Fernandez, an internationally respected scholar recently
promoted to provost of FIU's North Campus. ``I have talked to academics
who've visited Cuba in the past few months, and they say it's almost
eerie there. People go about their business, and no one even mentions
Fidel.''
What to expect from Raúl
Latell, whose book After Fidel is by far the single best source of
information about Raúl and what we might expect from his reign, says the
younger Castro brother and his coterie are so firmly in charge that even
if Fidel should stage a miraculous recovery and return to government in
some capacity, Fidel's power would be negligible.
One could says it's negligible now. When Raúl spoke last week publicly
about Fidel's health for the first time and said he's getting better, he
also described how Fidel has a phone at his bedside and is on it
constantly. I bet bureaucrats and party leaders around the country just
love getting his calls. ''Yes, yes, Fidel,'' they say. ''Seguro,
Fidel,'' they tell him, ''inmediatamente.'' And then they proceed to
pretty much ignore whatever he wanted or said. They know that Raúl has
the juice and control of the government.
The question is, what will Raúl do with it? Respected Cuba experts like
UM's Jaime Suchlicki believe not much, even after Fidel dies. And yet
there are signs he might try something different even before. Indeed,
the Cuba experts I consulted believe that Raúl must roll out some new
policies since he cannot rule by force of personality and charisma, as
his brother did. ''How Raúl orchestrates the succession over the next
six to seven months will be critical,'' says Fernandez. He says Raúl
must walk a political tightrope -- giving the people a few more creature
comforts and the prospect of more to come while hewing to the
ideological hard-line that the Communist Party leadership expects.
Babun says Raúl has a few tricks up his sleeve that he may reveal after
Fidel dies to solidify his position and mollify the masses. Babun says
Cuba has received 130 new buses from China but has only 40 in general
operation. Another 40 buses ferry members of the Communist Youth Union
around the country doing various tasks. Raúl is also sitting on six big
electricity generators that were imported from Europe, but none has gone
on line. They will, along with those 50 new buses, Babun predicts, when
Raúl believes the time is right. When he needs to show the Cuban people
that he can deliver things they desperately need -- electricity and
transportation. Very clever.
''Nothing happens in Cuba unless the government allows it,'' Babun says.
What it has recently allowed are new rules (La Ley de Cultos) that spell
out when churches can expand their operations, proselytize, hand out
literature, even use microphones at services. This works in favor of the
growing evangelical movement in Cuba and against the Catholic Church,
which is the only viable nongovernmental institution on the island.
What else might Raúl do to secure his place as the líder máximo? Release
a group of about 130 dissidents, which would send a symbolic message to
Washington about his position on human rights. He might also tell Eloy
Gutiérrez Menoyo, the former Miamian and Cuban political prisoner who
returned to Cuba a few years ago to start an opposition political party,
that he can open an office, hand out pamphlets, maybe even get his name
on a few local ballots. Cuba would remain a one-party country in
practice and theory, but even this small political opening would send
Washington another signal.
Better U.S.-Cuba relations
Should any of these things happen, how would Washington respond? Well,
it's already responding with renewed efforts by the Cuba Working Group
-- 44 members of Congress who seek better U.S.-Cuba relations -- to lift
travel restrictions on U.S. citizens and ease those for Cuban exiles.
Rep. Jeff Flake, the Arizona Republican who is leading the fight, tells
me he thinks Congress will pass such a bill this session.
Last week, in an Op-Ed piece in The Washington Post, Vicki Huddleston, a
respected former U.S. ambassador who once headed the U.S. Interests
Section in Havana, suggested that President Bush reinstitute the
''People-to-People'' program and the annual Cuban-American family visits
that were allowed during the first two years of his administration.
''Those polices,'' Huddleston wrote, ``were opening doors in Cuba.''
Fidel thought the doors were opening too wide and closed them. I'd bet
that Raúl, with a few positive signs from Washington, will allow them to
nudge open again.
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnists/michael_putney/16692723.htm
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