with Cuba
The Associated Press
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
WASHINGTON
In nearly equal measure, Americans say they do not like Cuban President
Fidel Castro but want the United States to re-establish regular
diplomatic relations with the communist island nation after 45 years of
estrangement.
Less than half of those polled think Cuba will become a democracy after
the 80-year-old revolutionary leader dies or permanently steps aside,
although 89 percent in The Associated Press-Ipsos poll say they think
Cubans will be better off or about the same when Castro is gone.
"It's probably not very likely in the short term," Kelly Shanley, 29,
said of prospects for a democratic shift. "I just hope for the citizens
of Cuba that it's something that's realized in the next few decades."
Although the tropical island 90 miles (145 kilometers) off Florida was
once a vacation playground, famed for its nightlife, nearly half, 46
percent, said they would be not at all interested in vacationing in
Cuba. Forty percent of those polled said they would be interested in
vacationing there if a long-standing travel ban were lifted.
The poll suggests the Cold War animosity that has defined U.S.-Cuba
relations for nearly a half-century may be fading. Castro's health began
to fail six months ago and he temporarily shifted power to his younger
brother Raul. Rumors have been rampant about his ailments and how long
he can survive.
Although U.S. administrations from left to right have called Castro a
dictator and a tyrant, and spent millions of dollars trying to undermine
him, 27 percent of respondents said they have not heard enough about
Castro to form an opinion. Those respondents still were included in the
survey, and they were asked the other questions.
The poll showed 64 percent had a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion of
Castro, the revolutionary leader who has said he will be a
Marxist-Leninist until the day he dies.
"He hasn't done much for his country. The country has not progressed,"
said Shiraz Damji, 61. "It's still in the '40s or something like that.
Leadership must grow the country and he's not done that."
Castro got slightly better reviews from younger people — 60 percent of
those under 35 had an unfavorable view of Castro while 66 percent of
older people felt that way — and younger people were more likely to
reserve judgment about Castro. Among people 18-34, 35 percent said they
don't yet know enough about Castro to have an opinion, while 24 percent
of those 35 and older said that.
A majority of Hispanics surveyed say it is likely that Castro's regime
will be replaced by a democracy while just 38 percent of non-Hispanics
think that will happen. Among Hispanics, 70 percent say Cubans will be
better off after Castro, compared with 53 percent of non-Hispanics.
Castro stunned the nation on July 31 by temporarily ceding power to his
younger brother, the 75-year-old defense minister. Raul Castro has led
the nation at the head of a collaborative leadership that has kept the
government running calmly in his brother's absence from public life.
Fidel Castro appeared more vigorous in recent television images, but
many U.S. Cuba analysts assume he will never resume power.
The United States cut off diplomatic ties with Cuba in 1961, two years
after Castro led an armed revolution that drove out U.S.-backed dictator
Fulgencio Batista. Decades-old trade and travel embargoes mean it is
illegal for American businesses to trade in an economy they once
dominated, and that few Americans have visited Cuba.
A large majority — 62 percent — of people said the United States should
re-establish diplomatic ties. The scant contact between the two
countries is now handled through Switzerland or via low-level diplomatic
offices called interests sections.
Despite the public's interest in diplomacy with Cuba, 48 percent of
those polled said the United States should continue its trade embargo
against Cuba.
Cuba could seek more normal relations or an end to the trade embargo
after Castro leaves the scene, but for now there is little domestic
political pressure on Bush to engage Cuba.
A bipartisan delegation of American lawmakers visited Havana in
December, seeking improved diplomatic and economic ties, but vehemently
anti-Castro Cuban exiles have been a potent force in Republican politics
for years.
Among Republicans, 82 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Castro while
59 percent of Democrats felt that way. Similarly, 62 percent of
Republicans doubted the prospects for democracy in a post-Castro Cuba,
compared with 50 percent of Democrats, and 72 percent of Democrats said
they favor establishing diplomatic relations compared with 51 percent of
Republicans.
The poll of 1,000 adults was taken Jan. 30-Feb. 1 and has a margin or
error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
___
AP Manager of News Surveys Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist
Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/02/07/america/NA-GEN-US-Cuba-AP-Poll.php
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