Has the Transfer of Power Begun?

Has the Transfer of Power Begun?

2006-06-20

The Latell Report

June 2006. Welcome to The Latell Report. The Report, analyzing Cuba's
contemporary domestic and foreign policy, is published monthly and
distributed by the electronic information service of the Cuba Transition
Project (CTP) at the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS).

The Latell Report is a publication of ICCAS and no government funding
has been used in its publication. The opinions expressed herein are
those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ICCAS
and/or the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Signs of what is probably accelerating succession planning at the
highest levels of the Castro regime have been multiplying since early
this month. As Fidel Castro’s ability to provide coherent leadership has
conspicuously deteriorated, his brother Raul seems to be assuming
broader responsibilities, while also reaching out to improve his image
with the Cuban people. These developments could even indicate that Raul
has already assumed critical responsibilities from his brother and is
now acting as Cuba’s de facto top decision maker.

Raul has been asserting personal control over the communist party
apparatus, highlighting its likely enhanced role in the future. He has
been focusing intense and sympathetic media attention on himself, while
also emphasizing the strength and unity of the armed forces he has run
since 1959. He has been out in public much more than has been customary,
regularly now appearing on the front page of the official communist
party daily, Granma. Cuban media coverage of the younger Castro has
reached such unprecedented intensity in fact, that it seems logical to
conclude that he has authorized the creation of his own public relations
staff. Always deferential to Fidel’s starring role in the Cuban
revolution, Raul would never in the past have presumed to upstage his
brother this way.

The media blitz began on June 3rd, Raul’s 75th birthday, when Granma,
ran a remarkable, extended paean to the defense minister. Under the
headline, Cercania de Raul, literally translated as “nearness” to Raul,
the article was intended in part to project a sympathetic image of a
leader who has never been popular with the Cuban people. But the Spanish
language title of the article also suggests a possibly momentous double
meaning: Cercania de Raul might also be translated as the “proximity of
Raul,” suggesting that his ascent to power in his own right has begun,
or is imminent. I do not believe that Raul has ever been the subject of
such unusual and personalized media attention.

The Granma birthday article was unprecedented in a number of respects.
The authors, longtime close personal friends of Raul, seemed intent on
distinguishing him favorably from Fidel, which would have been
inconceivable until now. The “modesty and simplicity” that Raul
demonstrates “in personal interactions” according to the authors,
certainly contrasts with Fidel’s grandiosity.

Raul, the article emphasized, avoids making “unilateral assessments.”
Instead –and notably unlike his brother—he always encourages
“collective” approaches to solving problems. The implication in this,
and other similar references in the article, as well as in a pointed
passage in a speech Raul delivered to a military audience on June 14th,
is probably that he intends to govern at the head of a collective
civilian-military team. He seems to be signaling other Cuban officials
that he does not plan to occupy all of the most important positions of
power in the party and government, as Fidel does. That is a sound
strategy for assuring leadership support for Raul’s uncontested succession.

His “deeply humane character,” devotion to his family, and concern for
his responsibilities as a father and grandfather, as described in the
article, also distinguish him from Fidel who has almost never even
acknowledged the existence of his extended family. Raul, was said to be
“good natured, kind, and funny,” adjectives that are rarely applied to
his brother. In these and other similar descriptions of Raul, the intent
was to correct the prevailing image of him as ruthless and draconian.

Raul’s skills as an administrator and organizer also contrast with
Fidel’s penchant for extravagance and disorganization. The article
stated that Raul is “a highly organized, disciplined, systematic, and
demanding man.” Pointedly, it also highlighted the fact that he is
always conscious of the costs of policy decisions. “How much fuel is
consumed in moving troops?” he reportedly wants to know, for example.
“What is the cost of this maneuver?’’ Fidel characteristically has
little interest in such boring details.

The authors of the Granma article also include a veiled reference to the
Castro brothers’ relationship that I believe is without precedent, on or
off the record until now in the entire history of the revolution. They
refer to the “difficult and complex responsibility that comes with being
second in command.” Do they mean that the brothers have come to disagree
about critical policy directions? Are they and Raul suggesting that he
is now ready to emerge from Fidel’s overwhelming shadow, to put his own
stamp on Cuban policy? Is this long-repressed younger brother now coming
out into the full glare of leading Cuba?

Another shrouded but portentous reference in the article suggests that
may be the case. The authors recall events of March 1958 when Raul took
command of his own guerrilla forces that would then operate in the
Sierra Cristal mountain range of eastern Cuba independently of Fidel's
troops in the Sierra Maestra. “It would be the first time” since the
opening campaigns of the revolution in July 1953, according to the
article, “that Fidel and Raul would not be together.”

The article concludes with several passages drawn from Fidel’s speeches
and interviews over the years, in which he certifies his brother as his
legitimate and preferred successor. “In my opinion, the colleague that
was best prepared and that I knew could very well carry out the task was
comrade Raul.” And, Fidel is also quoted as once having said: “everybody
knows we hate nepotism here. (But) I honestly think that (Raul) has the
sufficient qualities to substitute for me in case I die in this battle."

Website Accessible at http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/

The CTP, funded by a grant from the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID), can be contacted at P.O. Box 248174, Coral Gables,
Florida 33124-3010, Tel: 305-284-CUBA (2822), Fax: 305-284-4875, and by
email at ctp.iccas@miami.edu.

http://www.miscelaneasdecuba.net/web/article.asp?artID=5834