Are Cuba's Communist Leaders Ready For Life Without Castro?

Are Cuba's Communist Leaders Ready For Life Without Castro?
April 16, 20165:07 PM ET
CARRIE KAHN

José Ramón Fernández will probably never attend another Communist Party
Congress. At 92, he's the oldest delegate to take part in the four-day
meeting of Cuba's top communist leaders that convenes on Saturday.

With the island's closed economy slowly opening to the world and
relations with the United States warming, you'd think the 92-year-old's
attendance at an elite gathering that could determine Cuba's future
wouldn't be front page news. But that was one of the few peeks into this
year's congress revealed in Cuba's official newspaper Granma. As of
Friday morning, no official agenda had been published, no government
initiatives revealed, and no public forums held. It was a rare level of
opacity even by the standards of the island dictatorship.

"This congress is much more closed than any previous ones," says Omar
Everleny, one of Cuba's leading economists. Foreign media outlets,
including NPR, were not granted visas to cover the congress, which is
expected to offer some clues for the regime's plans for the next decade.

Excitement that new reforms and even more opening of Cuba's state-run
economy might be unveiled in the congress has been growing alongside the
improvement in U.S.-Cuban relations. That furor escalated after
President Obama's historic visit to the island last month, when he urged
Cuba's aging leaders not to fear, but to embrace change.

This year's meeting will most likely be Cuban President Raúl Castro's
last. At 84, he has already said he will relinquish the presidency in
two years. But it's unclear whether he and his elderly compatriots will
allow for a younger generation to take over the ruling Politburo. The
average age of the 14-member body is 70.

And just how fast — or slow — the pace of economic opening will continue
is anyone's guess. During the last Congress held in 2011, landmark
reforms gave Cubans new rights to own businesses, homes, cars and even
to travel off the island. A quarter of the island's people now
participate in the private sector.

Economist Everleny says state enterprises, which still control the
lion's share of the economy, need to keep up with the times and
modernize. "They need to be refreshed, they aren't efficient," he says.
"They must change."

Initiatives announced during the last Congress in 2011 haven't fared
that well. Only 21 percent of those guidelines have been fully
implemented. And three quarters of the population still struggle to
survive on the average $25 monthly salary.

Small businesses complain that they need access to state-controlled
wholesale markets if they are to survive. And private enterprises clamor
for access to export and import trade.

"Expectations and frustrations are high and becoming more vocalized,"
says Peter Kornbluh, co-author of the book Back Channel to Cuba: The
Hidden History of Negotiations Between Washington and Havana.

Kornbluh says the Cuban leadership could muddle through a few more years
without significant changes, but they won't be able avoid addressing the
people's rising expectations. "That's the rub," he says.

The intense secrecy surrounding the congress has significantly lowered
hopes for the amount of change that party leaders may tolerate. Recent
Cuban editorials and television roundtables criticizing Obama's visit
have cast a pall over the meeting, signaling that party hardliners may
have the upper hand.

And Friday's Granma announced that a surprise last-minute delegate would
be attending the congress — 89-year-old former Cuban leader, Fidel Castro.

Source: Are Cuba's Communist Leaders Ready For Life Without Castro? :
NPR -
http://www.npr.org/2016/04/16/474497405/are-cuba-s-communist-leaders-ready-for-life-without-castro