The Castros do not want normalization

The Castros do not want normalization
ROBERTO ÁLVAREZ QUIÑONES | Los Ángeles | 29 Oct 2015 - 11:34 am.

The dictatorial elite's perception is that 'too much' rapprochement with
the US would entail enormous internal and external problems.

The Castro brothers have always understood US presidents and the
intricacies of political power better than the Americans have
comprehended the Cubans. In Washington they still can´t fathom why the
two brothers and their military junta don't want friendly and harmonious
relations with the US, but rather for the embargo to be lifted, and to
receive loans and tourists from the north with bulging wallets. Simple
as that.

With the Venezuelan crisis deteriorating by the minute, an end to the
embargo has become urgent for the Castro regime. But having politically
cordial and normal relations with Washington is not in their best
interest. Hence, they will do everything possible to prevent them, or to
sabotage them, even if the "blockade" (a military term that has nothing
to do with a unilateral trade embargo placed by one country on another)
is lifted.

The dictatorial elite's view is that "too much" rapprochement with the
US would generate great internal and external trouble, as it would mean
"betraying" its history as an anti-American leftist leader in Latin
America. But, above all, it could undermine the regime's Orwellian
control over all of Cuban society. People on the island feel would be
less fearful of demanding more freedoms if the "Empire" were a strong ally.

The gerontocracy of "historical" commanders is not prepared - nor do
they want to be - to grapple in a civilized way with the political,
ideological, economic, cultural and psychological "contamination" that
could spring from a close relationship with the US. The training of the
Castro regime's nomenklatura has always been based on the opposite:
visceral confrontation with the "imperialist enemy."

Castro's Manifest Destiny

In reaction to US-made rockets fired at a farmer's house in the Sierra
Maestra by Batista dictatorship aircraft on June 5, 1958, Fidel Castro
wrote a letter to Celia Sánchez setting forth the Manifest Destiny of
his revolution: "When this war is over, for me a much longer and greater
war shall begin: that which I will wage against them. I realize that
this will be my true destiny. "

That war did not end with the reopening of embassies in Havana and
Washington. And it will not end as long as the island is ruled by Castro
and the commanders who joined the anti-US crusade conceived by their
leader. There will be no close relationship between Cuba and the United
States until there is a new "deideologized" political leadership on the
island.

But they don´t understand this in Washington. Even if the embargo were
lifted, the Castroist leadership would throw up roadblocks to stymy the
normalization process. On October 3 Commander José Ramón Machado
Ventura, second-in-command in the regime, made this clear: "the
Communist Party of Cuba will always be the backbone of the Cuban
nation's resistance." In the language of Castroism, that means that the
political and media struggle against the US shall continue.

Strong alliances with Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, Syria, direct
intervention in Venezuela to support the Chávez regime, and encouraging
anti-US positions in Latin American governments, all form part of the
Castros' geopolitical arsenal to maintain serious differences with their
neighbor and forestall the full normalization of relations.

They will continue to blame the US

It's a mistake to believe that with the end of the embargo Castroism
will be left politically speechless, unable to continue blaming the US
for Cuba's dire economic woes. No. The Castros will never recognize that
they themselves, and socialism, are responsible for the widespread
misery in Cuba.

The day after the repeal of the Helms-Burton Act, the regime launched
its Plan B: an aggressive worldwide diplomatic, legal, political and
media campaign to demand the 100 billion dollars that it says the US
should pay Cuba in damages for the embargo. They argue that it was the
embargo that impoverished Cuba, which was left without financial
resources, machinery or raw materials, enough food, and sidelined it
from the technological revolution.

They will insist that if Washington does not disburse this money it will
be impossible to improve the Cuban people's standard of living, or to
reconstruct the country, or to create the infrastructure required for US
investments, or to develop the economy and integrate into the global
economic system.

A silent transfer of power

Havana, however grudgingly, knows it has to end the embargo, and fast,
for two reasons: 1) with the collapse of oil prices, the political and
financial outlook of its Venezuelan benefactor is getting worse and
worse and 2) the end of the "blockade" would economically facilitate a
silent transfer of political-military power from the Castros and their
"historic" cronies to their younger family members and fledgling generals.

Whether or not Castro is their surname, they will be responsible for
installing the neo-Castroist model. They will be those who are
"empowered" by an end to the embargo. By law, the self-employed cannot
even negotiate directly with foreign entities. By the way, if Cuba's
current Stalinists laws are not overturned, it will be hard to attract
any significant American investment in Cuba.

The foundations of that succession model will be presented at the next
Communist Party Congress in April 2016, a formula representing a melding
of State-driven capitalism and post-Soviet and Chinese elements, with
entirely fascist features, due to its decidedly military character. And
watch out: the most important "change" in the economic sphere introduced
by "Raulism" thus far has been the militarization of the economy.

More militarized than ever

The great paradox of the Cuba-US "thaw" is that it is occurring when the
country is more controlled than ever by the armed forces, while its
political system is shedding the formal appearance of an orthodox
"socialist democracy" and starting to look more like a fascist military
regime.

It doesn´t matter what Marxism-Leninism says, or the Cuban Socialist
Constitution, on the leading role of the Communist Party. That
militarization was not envisioned by the Leninist and Stalinist leaders
of the Communist old guard, like Blas Roca, Juan Marinello, Carlos
Rafael Rodríguez, César Escalante or Lázaro Pena. None of them today
would have the political strength, influence and power they did in their
time.

The GAESA (Grupo de Administración Empresarial SA) is a gigantic, truly
capitalist corporation attached to the Ministry of the Revolutionary
Armed Forces (FAR), which receives all the currency entering the country
and almost 80% of revenues generated on the island. It is not
institutionally accountable to the Government of the Republic. Thus, the
Castros laugh at the basic principles of socialism as envisaged by Marx,
according to which the "State of the people, workers and peasants" is
charged with socially distributing and redistributing the "surplus"
created by the workers. And hence, Antonio Castro is able to cruise the
Mediterranean in a luxury yacht.

What the military cadre that reigns in Cuba wants is to shake of the
embargo in order to access loans and get rich off the tourism and
business they could do with the Americans, and to financially facilitate
a succession that is inevitable, for biological reasons, towards a
military dictatorship whose members will benefit from capitalism - but
without allowing everyday Cubans to do the same.

Until then the full normalization of relations with Washington does not
form part of the regime's plans, as it is not compatible with their
Manifest Destiny.

Apparently neither is it in the plans of the neo-Castroists, but
unpredictable events could upset everything and throw a wrench in the
dictatorial succession scheme.

Source: The Castros do not want normalization | Diario de Cuba -
http://www.diariodecuba.com/cuba/1446111274_17786.html