Analysts question Cuba calling Korea ship weapons 'obsolete'

Analysts question Cuba calling Korea ship weapons 'obsolete'
Oren Dorell, USA TODAY 5:47 p.m. EDT July 17, 2013

Missile radar systems and aircraft components discovered aboard a North
Korean-flagged ship that Cuba says are "obsolete" show that North Korea
is trying to reduce its reliance on China, its main sponsor, an analyst
says.

"Despite years of relations between Cuba and North Korea, there's been
no trade of consequence between the two and this seems to indicate there
is a new relationship being built between the two countries," said Kim
Petersen, president of maritime consultancy Security Dynamics LLC.

Army General Kim Kyok Sik, Chief of the General Staff of the Korean
People's Army met with Cuban President Raúl Castro in Havana July 1,
according to Cuban media reports. The visit was followed by the arrival
of a North Korean ship in Havana which was caught last week at the
Panama Canal trying to ship Cuban weaponry to North Korea.

Such a visit "hasn't happened in recent memory" and "certainly caught
the attention of intelligence analysts in Washington," Petersen
said.//end nu//

Petersen, who advised former President George H.W. Bush and former
secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and Alexander Haig, says North
Korea may feel it cannot rely on China for military equipment since the
Chinese regime has pressured it to tone down its belligerent actions
toward South Korea and the West.

The North Korean ship was seized after inspectors found weapons system
parts under sacks of sugar, Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli
said. Cuba's Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that the Soviet-era equipment
had been picked up by the Chong Chon Gang to be repaired and returned to
Cuba.

"The agreements subscribed by Cuba in this field are supported by the
need to maintain our defensive capacity in order to preserve national
sovereignty," the statement read.

It said the cargo included 240 metric tons of "obsolete defensive
weapons": two Volga and Pechora anti-aircraft missile systems, nine
missiles "in parts and spares," two Mig-21 Bis and 15 engines for those
airplanes.

Petersen said the shipment belies the Cuban claims.

"If you're sending an engine to be repaired why would you sell the
entire aircraft?" he said.

The missile radar systems could be upgraded to make air-defense systems
more effective at shooting down modern military aircraft, other military
analysts said. Defense experts said images released by Panama indicate
the cargo is a radar system for the SA-2 family of surface-to-air (SAM)
missiles, which are designed to shoot down enemy aircraft at high
elevations.

John Pike of Globalsecurity.org said that ever since an SA-2 shot down
Gary Powers' U-2 spy plane in 1960, American engineers have worked "to
render this missile ineffective."

"I think the United States and South Korea and Japan have reasonable
confidence they can jam it and blow up its radars and it can be rendered
ineffective, but it could not be ignored," said Pike, whose group
monitors weapons threats globally.

The radar was developed by the former Soviet Union, which was dissolved
in 1991, but the system is "still in use in a lot of countries, and
progressive upgrades to the radars and the missiles means it is not
completely useless," said James Hardy, Asia-Pacific editor of IHS Jane's
Defense Weekly.

Modern jamming techniques prevent such a radar from getting a fix on an
aircraft but "counter-counter-electronic measures have been fitted to
later, post-Soviet models of this radar," Hardy said.

Modernizing the radars would involve changing analog systems to digital
and upgrading the software to make them less vulnerable to electronic
jamming and spoofing, according to IHS Jane's.

The U.N. Security Council has imposed four rounds of sanctions against
North Korea since its first nuclear test on Oct. 9, 2006. Under current
sanctions, all U.N. member states are prohibited from directly or
indirectly supplying, selling or transferring all arms, missiles or
missile systems and the equipment and technology to make them to North
Korea, with the exception of small arms and light weapons.

Patrick Ventrell, a State Department spokesman, said the department's
non-proliferation bureau is looking into the case. "Any shipment of arms
or related materiel would violate numerous U.N. Security Council
resolutions," he said.

North Korea has not commented on the seizure, during which 35 North
Koreans were arrested after resisting police efforts to intercept the
ship in Panamanian waters last week, according to Martinelli. He said
the captain had a heart attack and also tried to commit suicide.

Martinelli said the ship's crew resisted efforts to search and seize the
ship, and the captain had a heart attack and attempted suicide during
the operation. The concealment of the cargo and the reported reaction of
the crew "strongly suggests this was a covert shipment of equipment,"
according to an IHS Jane's assessment.

Panama seizes a North Korean-flagged ship carrying what appeared to be
ballistic missiles and other arms that had set sail from Cuba.
Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli says the ship had been heading
for North Korea. (July 16)

The equipment could have been sent from Cuba to North Korea for an
upgrade, to be returned to Cuba and to be paid for with the sugar, or it
could be an arms shipment to North Korea,IHS Jane's said. There were
10,000 metric tons of sugar on board the ship as well.

Panamanian authorities said it might take a week to search the ship,
since so far they have only examined one of its five container sections.
They have requested help from United Nations inspectors, along with
Colombia and Britain, said Javier Carballo, Panama's top narcotics
prosecutor. North Korea is barred by U.N. sanctions from importing
sophisticated weapons or missiles.

Contributing: The Associated Press

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