Posted By Josh Rogin Tuesday, February 9, 2010 - 6:33 PM Share
At last week's Senate Intelligence committee hearing, top officials
acknowledged that President Obama's campaign promise to drastically
alter U.S. policy toward Cuba is meeting some significant roadblocks.
"Cuba has demonstrated few signs of wanting a closer relationship with
the United States," DNI Adm. Dennis Blair said in his prepared remarks.
"President Raúl Castro fears that rapid or significant economic change
would undermine regime control and weaken the revolution, and his
government shows no signs of easing his repression of political dissidents."
Despite some cooperation during the Haiti crisis, the State Department
sees few signs that the Cuban government is genuinely interested in
repairing relations, despite an encouraging start. Last April, the Obama
administration made a series of small changes to America's Cuba policy,
some related to family travel and remittances. The two sides held
migration talks in July and discussed mail service in September. In
October, Bisa Williams, then a deputy assistant secretary of state,
traveled to Havana to hold talks on resuming direct mail service between
the two countries.
But since the Williams visit, there hasn't been much good news to
report, and Williams has moved on to be nominated for U.S. ambassador to
Niger.
"Well, if you look at Cuba from November until now you'll see that
they've had more of a strident tone and series of actions," a State
Department official working on the issue told The Cable. "There were
some improvements in terms of our ability to operate in Cuba and our
interest section in Cuba ... we hope that the Cuban government will take
positive measures of its own to improve the conditions for the Cuban
people -- and there we haven't seen very much."
Advocates of engagement with the Castro regime criticize an
administration policy they see as being based on "conditionality,"
waiting for the Cubans to respond to American overtures before taking
further steps. That strategy is not likely to produce progress, they
argue. But the official said the U.S. approach is not based on
conditionality at all.
"What we said was that we hoped that there would be positive measures
undertaken not because of what we were doing but because of the need to
improve conditions, period. We've not said that if we do this, then
you'll do that."
The official did mention some measures the Cuban government could take
that would be viewed as positive signs by the U.S. side, such as
lowering charges on remittances and increasing respect for religious
freedom among Cuban citizens. But those are "suggestions" not
"conditionalities," the official insisted.
The bottom line is that the Obama team hasn't seen any real steps by the
Cuban government in response to the steps they've already taken and no
further steps by the U.S. side are planned right now. Talks between the
governments have stopped and planned talks on migration have yet to be
scheduled.
Obama had also promised to reform the Cold War-era sanctions regime, but
when asked why there is no drive to alter the underlying laws,
administration officials point back to Congress, where a bipartisan
group of lawmakers stands poised to obstruct any such effort.
Some of them, like Florida Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and New Jersey Sen.
Robert Mendendez, hail from areas with strong anti-Castro populations.
Other opponents of lifting sanctions, such as Sen. Joseph Lieberman,
I-CT, have more ideological reasons.
The Obama team doesn't see anyone, however, willing to overcome such
opposition and push hard for repealing sanctions. "The reality is that
this administration is very much based on setting priorities and making
sure they're going after the right priorities," the official said.
"They're pretty busy, so taking on another issue like this where there
is not a clear drive on the Hill, is a pretty substantial undertaking."
So the Cuba issue continues to be managed, but not radically rethought
inside the administration. Day-to-day operations are run through the
State Department's Cuba desk, which sits under the assistant secretary
for Western hemisphere affairs, Arturo Valenzuela, and the deputy
assistant secretary who manages Cuba issues, Julissa Reynoso.
Higher-level policy decisions are overseen by the senior director for
the Western hemisphere at the National Security Council, Dan Rastrepo.
When it comes to sanctions, Adam Szubin, the director for the Office of
Foreign Assets Control at Treasury, is a key figure. The deputy
assistant secretary for Western hemisphere affairs at the Pentagon is
Frank Mora, and he handles defense-related issues.
Overall, the Obama team is still looking for ways to make incremental
changes in the U.S. approach to Cuba, probably without the direct
involvement or cooperation of the Cuban regime.
"The fact that we don't have anything to announce doesn't mean that
everything has ground to a halt," the official said. "On the contrary,
we are continuing to look for ways to advance our interests where it's
going to be important to U.S. citizens. Again, our hope is that the
Cuban government will respond to the needs of their own population."
U.S.-Cuba rapprochement? Not anytime soon | The Cable (10 February 2010)
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/02/09/us_cuba_rapprochement_not_anytime_soon
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