Engaging Cuba, One Step at a Time

Engaging Cuba, One Step at a Time
Patrick Burns | Bio | 13 Nov 2009
World Politics Review

HAVANA -- In Havana, the most conspicuous evidence that hostility toward
the U.S. has softened can be found at the U.S. Interest Section along
the Malecón promenade. When I was last here in early 2008, the gleaming
white tower was camouflaged by more than a hundred billowing black flags
that Fidel Castro had erected in 2006. The flags were meant to block a
scrolling marquee displaying anti-Fidel, pro-America messages, installed
by the Bush administration.

Nowadays, the building gets a lot more direct sunlight. After the Obama
administration pulled the plug on the marquee in June, Fidel removed
almost all the flags, leaving only a single row of much smaller banners
that flap awkwardly atop towering, gray poles. The image illustrates the
current U.S.-Cuba relationship, a fragile, quid pro quo arrangement with
enormous expectations building on both sides.

In April, Obama loosened restrictions on remittances and travel for
Cuban Americans -- pragmatic measures that somehow won support in Miami
and Havana. Washington also sent a State Department envoy to the island
to restart immigration talks. Meantime, Fidel Castro has been
uncharacteristically conciliatory toward Obama, most recently by
congratulating him for being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In a
landmark July speech, Fidel's brother, President Raul Castro, suggested
that Cuba should stop blaming its economic woes on Washington. Still,
despite the diplomatic dance taking place, normalization will take time,
and the two countries remain deeply divided on core issues.

In September, the U.S. extended its embargo of the island for another
year. The following month, the U.N. condemned the embargo, as it has
done every year for the past 18 years, with a near-unanimous vote in the
General Assembly. (Israel, the U.S. and three others voted against the
measure.) In speeches before the vote, some countries blamed the U.S.
for the lack of food on the island.

But unbeknownst to many, the U.S. is in fact Cuba's largest supplier of
food and agricultural products.

According to the USDA (.pdf), Cuba bought $700 million of U.S. farm
products in 2008. So the embargo, it seems, is one-sided, and very
lucrative for American farmers.

U.S. food shipments have been increasing every year since 2000, when the
U.S. Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Act, or TSRA, was signed into
law. It stipulates that U.S. producers can sell food and agricultural
products on a cash-in-advance basis. Despite the bill's draconian
restrictions, Havana continues to buy U.S. food products, because the
proximity makes it illogical not to do so. Soy beans from Argentina take
a month to arrive, while a shipment from the U.S. can be in Havana's
port in as little as one day.

This loophole in the embargo has allowed Cuba to use agricultural trade
for political leverage. The grains, corn, and other agricultural
products come from 37 different U.S. states. For farmers from those
states, Cuba has become an attractive market, instead of a despised
dictatorship. This economic cooperation was on display the week I was in
Havana, with dozens of American companies vying for contracts at the
yearly international trade fair. What remains to be seen is whether the
Americans will make their commercial interests heard in Washington in
order to influence policy.

In his July speech, Raul Castro called on Cubans to become more
self-sufficient in terms of food production, saying, "The land is there,
here are the Cubans." To further incentivize farmers, he allowed greater
access to leased land with a program that turns state land over to
private farmers. Still, Cuba continues to import well over half of the
food it consumes, according to the National Office of Statistics. And
without a developed economy, the Cuban government is having a tough time
paying for imports.

The global recession, which was exacerbated here by a trio of hurricanes
last year, has not made matters any easier, especially since 2009 has
been a slow year for another sector Cuba is banking on: tourism.

In 2008, about 2 million tourists visited Cuba, most of them from
Canada. An estimated 90,000 tourists from the U.S. come to Cuba each
year, but most are Cuban-Americans who stay with family, not in hotels.
If the U.S. travel ban is lifted, the number of Americans could jump
tenfold. Hence, tourism companies from around the world are anxiously
eyeing opportunities on the island. Golf courses are being designed, and
two British cruise lines plan to make Cuban ports of call in 2010.

Even Cuban-Americans in Miami, notoriously hawkish on Cuba policy, are
becoming more moderate on travel. A September poll by the Miami-based
firm of Bendixen & Associates found that 59 percent of Cuban-Americas
believe that all Americans should be able to travel to the island.

There are currently two bills in Congress that would lift U.S. travel
restrictions. But the political costs of major changes in Cuba policy
are still too high for Washington to bear in the near future. So for
now, argues Robert Pastor, professor of international relations at
American University, the Obama administration's incremental steps are
the best way to open doors for more pragmatic cooperation. "There are
many smaller issues that cry for a more imaginative approach that would
meet both countries' needs," Pastor says.

Indeed, when trivial gestures like flags and marquees can be interpreted
as meaningful, policy-based initiatives, practical engagement on issues
like mail service, communication, and countering drug trafficking could
have a dramatic impact. But given the 50 years of mutual antagonism
between the two countries, even small steps will take time.

Patrick Burns is a journalist based in New York. He often covers the
United Nations, with an emphasis on the political and multilateral
relations of Latin American and Asian countries.

WPR Article | Engaging Cuba, One Step at a Time (13 November 2009)
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=4620