Cuba change will come slowly, if at all

Posted on Thursday, 04.23.09
Cuba change will come slowly, if at all
OUR OPINION: Exiles, dissidents must be included in the discussion

The momentum coming out of the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad has
created a buzz about what comes next in U.S.-Cuba relations, with much
speculation focusing on a prisoner swap. Such talk not only is premature
but ill-considered. Trading criminals convicted in an open and fair
judicial process for dissidents whose activities would not be considered
a crime in any democratic society is not a fair deal.

Indeed, no single action is likely to produce a big change in U.S.-Cuba
relations overnight, but that does not foreclose the possibility of
improvement. At this point, however, neither side knows what is
possible, and that is the candid conversation that the administration of
President Barack Obama must have with Cuban leaders before it embarks on
any concrete negotiation. If the way to progress appears open, it should
be guided by the following considerations:

• Avoid preconditions. Getting started is hard enough without making
peremptory demands. The normalization of relations with Vietnam, it
should be recalled, was achieved without calling for changes in the
country's political or economic system.

• Focus on confidence-building measures at the outset. The Obama
administration has already eased travel and gift restrictions for
Americans with relatives on the island. Cuba can reciprocate by reducing
the amount of money it pockets from remittances and thus denies to the
intended recipients.

• Don't expect too much. Improving diplomatic relations would be a major
accomplishment, but real normalization is a process that will require
years, if not decades to complete.

• Ask other leaders in Latin America to do their part. Cuba is more
likely to respond to pressure to change its human-rights posture if the
push comes from other leaders in the region like Brazil's Luiz Inácio
Lula da Silva or Chile's Michelle Bachelet than from Washington. Now is
the time for them to weigh in and make a difference if they mean what
they say about wanting to end Cuba's isolation in the hemisphere.

• Finally, and perhaps most important, consult those individuals who
have been harmed the most over the years. This includes both the
dissident community in Cuba (which opposes the spies-for political
prisoners idea) and exiles who have a stake in the future of Cuba. Polls
show that a majority of Cuban Americans are open to talking with a
Castro-led Cuba. However, bad faith by the Cuban government and a naive
approach by U.S. negotiators could stop the momentum in its tracks.

No one should be blind to the many obstacles that lie ahead, but there
is reason to hope that Cuba may be ready to turn the page. In the past,
Fidel Castro has offered to talk without preconditions, but only in the
last few days has Raúl Castro volunteered that the most important issues
for many Cuban Americans -- human rights, freedom of the press and
political prisoners -- would be on the table. Whether Cuba's president
has room to maneuver with Big Brother looking over his shoulder remains
an imponderable, but it's worth finding out.

For half a century, the United States and Cuba have been separated by
far more than the 90-mile stretch of the Florida Straits. Politically,
the two countries remain oceans apart, separated by deep-seated
suspicion and mutual hostility. The estrangement has always seemed a bit
unnatural, given the ties of history and geography that connect the two
countries, but it must be recognized that it is based on real
differences and real grievances.

It would be an error to believe that differences will be overcome
easily, if that is possible at all. It would be a tragedy not to try.

Cuba change will come slowly, if at all - Editorials - MiamiHerald.com
(1 May 2009)

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/story/1013721.html