CUBA
Raúl wants to chat
BY CARLOS ALBERTO MONTANER
www.firmaspress.com
Shortly before his profoundly anti-American speech of Jan. 1, Raúl
Castro, at the time in Brazil, insisted publicly on his desire to talk
with President-elect Barack Obama. What is his intention?
He has three objectives up his sleeve: to gain access to soft credit so
that he can import American goods despite his government's well-earned
reputation for insolvency; to attract hundreds of thousands of American
tourists; and to gain the release of five of the 14 Cuban spies captured
in 1999 by the FBI. (Nine of them admitted their guilt, made deals with
the judges and prosecutors, were given very light sentences and have
already been discreetly reintegrated into society in the United States.)
Once he attains the first two objectives, Raúl Castro would practically
liquidate what remains of the embargo. With the third, he would please
Fidel Castro, who is determined not to die until his ''hardest'' agents
return to Cuba. Naturally, despite the general clamor that demands deep
political changes, neither Fidel nor Raúl would even think about opening
the margins of participation in Cuban society. They intend to maintain a
communist state with a single party and a total absence of freedoms.
Fidel's firm grip
Obama should harbor no illusions regarding Cuba. Ten U.S. presidents
before him have bashed heads with the regime of the Castro brothers.
However, it is probable that, during Obama's first four-year term,
things will begin to change inside the island. The starting point for
those changes could be the death of Fidel Castro, who has been slowly
expiring since the summer of 2006. While it is known that most of those
in the structure of power would like a profound reform, the old
comandante, a stubborn Stalinist, prevents it.
This observation is important: While Fidel Castro is alive, any
significant concession the Obama administration may make to Havana will
be counterproductive. It will be interpreted as, ''Fidel Castro is
right, and we don't need to make any substantial change in our
totalitarian model.'' However, the moment Fidel disappears, Washington
must make a goodwill gesture, even to Raúl Castro, as a sign of
encouragement to the reformist forces, with the explicit message that
the United States is willing to generously help Cubans transform the
country into a peaceful and reasonably prosperous democracy.
For Obama's government, that must be the objective: Cuba's peaceful
change into a stable democracy with freedoms and respect for human
rights, a democracy with a productive apparatus that allows Cubans to
live in their homeland without having to emigrate illegally to the
United States. A nation similar to Costa Rica, with good relations with
its neighbors and the United States; a nation that, far from expelling
its people for lack of opportunities, is able to absorb the thousands of
exiles who would return to Cuba if living conditions were acceptable there.
Washington discredited
The achievement of that objective leads one to discard any temptation to
negotiate in Cuba with a tyranny like the one in China or Vietnam, with
a kleptocracy like the one in Russia or with a military dictatorship.
That only postpones the problem, it does not solve it. For almost all of
the 20th century, the United States played the ''our-SOB'' card, and the
results were dreadful. Washington became totally discredited because it
preached democracy and protected the dictatorships. After Somoza came
the Sandinistas. After Batista, communism came to Cuba. It makes no
sense to revive that strategy in the post-Castro era.
What can Obama do to stimulate changes in Cuba? He can adopt several
measures: to gradually reduce the economic sanctions if the dictatorship
releases political prisoners or relieves its pressure on the dissidents;
elevate the rank of the United States' diplomatic representation to the
category of embassy; facilitate sports and academic exchanges.
But before any initiative is taken in Washington, a key question must be
asked: Will that step lead Cubans toward democracy and an economic
opening, or will it help consolidate in power an authoritarian oligarchy
that abusively divvies up the nation's revenues? That's the litmus test.
If the result is the latter, there's no sense even in trying.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/cuba/story/839213.html
No comments:
Post a Comment