CUBA-VENEZUELA RELATIONS
Raúl Castro may not maintain ultra-close ties to Venezuela's Chávez
BY SARA MILLER LLANA AND TYLER BRIDGES
McClatchy/Christian Science Monitor
CARACAS -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has gushed often that Cuba's
Fidel Castro is like a ''father.'' Cuban vice president Carlos Lage has
been just as effusive: ``Cuba has two presidents: Fidel and Chávez.''
So it's no surprise then that Castro's successor, his younger brother,
Raúl, will make Venezuela his first overseas trip since becoming Cuba's
president in July 2006. His trip begins Saturday.
But Raúl isn't Fidel -- and his relationship with Chávez isn't as close
as his older brother's.
''It's Fidel who Chávez idolizes . . . Chávez considers himself to be a
descendant of Fidel,'' said Brian Latell, formerly the CIA's top Latin
America analyst and the author of the book, After Fidel: Raúl Castro and
the Future of Cuba's Revolution.
``From Raúl's perspective . . . he has lived under the shadow, the often
overbearing shadow, of Fidel for 50 years. Does he want to put himself
under someone else's shadow?''
Chávez and Fidel Castro, Latin America's most vociferous anti-American
leaders, have forged a strong friendship since the mid-1990s.
While the relationship between Chávez and Raúl is shallower, their
mutual needs -- Chávez needs Cuba's revolutionary brand and Cuba needs
Venezuela's oil money -- is likely to take precedent over any lack of
personal chemistry.
In fact, analysts said, the two leaders may need each even more now that
oil prices have taken a dramatic dive and Chavez's popularity seems to
have ebbed.
''Chávez provides such an enormous subsidy [to Cuba], Raúl may perceive
[this visit] as something close to obligatory,'' Latell said.
Antonio Jorge, a professor of political economy at Florida International
University, said the fuel and other forms of Venezuelan assistance
amount to a subsidy of more than $2 billion per year. ''Venezuelan aid
is decisive for maintaining the Cuban regime,'' he said.
In return, Cuba has sent thousands of medical personnel, sports coaches
and other advisors to Venezuela.
Sergio Rodríguez, a senior official at a Venezuelan government foreign
affairs policy institute in Caracas, called the Raúl Castro trip
''symbolically important.'' The visit ''sends a signal by Raúl that he
wants to maintain strong relations between the two countries,'' he said.
However, Maria Teresa Romero, an international relations professor at
Venezuela's Central University, says the trip matters more to Chávez
than it does to Raúl Castro.
''Chávez wants the visit to reinforce the belief that he is the
political heir from Fidel Castro of the revolutionary movement in Latin
America,'' Romero said. ``Chávez wants people to believe that he has the
same relationship with Raúl as he has with Fidel. But Raúl Castro is
trying to improve relations with other countries, including even the
United States. It appears that Raúl doesn't want to depend as much on
Venezuela.''
Mark Falcoff, a Latin America expert at the American Enterprise
Institute in Washington, a neoconservative policy organization, added
that Chávez also stands in the way of Raúl's attempt to carve out his
own political identity, apart from his brother's larger-than-life
personality.
This has posed something of a burden for Chávez, said Thomas Shannon,
the State Department's top envoy for Latin America.
''Chávez has really had to work hard to build a relationship with Raúl
Castro and with those around Raúl Castro who play very important roles
in the day-to-day governance of Cuba,'' Shannon told a congressional
committee in July.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/cuba/story/811232.html
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