By David Usborne in New York
Published: 01 August 2007
Cuba marked the first anniversary yesterday of Fidel Castro
provisionally handing power to his younger brother, Raul, with little
sign of the political or economic change some had expected. Human rights
reform, freedom, and reliable supplies of food staples remain as elusive
as ever.
Absent also is Fidel himself, who relinquished absolute power on 31 July
last year two days after undergoing major intestinal surgery. The
biggest news about him is already old news: in spite of at least one
botched operation and early indications of extreme frailty, he remains
alive, so far as we know.
His clinging to life is a bitter disappointment to political opponents
on the island and to thousands of Cubans in exile in the United States,
many of whom rushed rather too precipitously a year ago to celebrate
what they assumed was his imminent passing. Called a "dictator emeritus"
by some, the elder Castro has not been seen in public since July last
year and most notably failed to make an appearance at last week's
National Rebellion Day celebrations, which for 48 years have seen him
address huge crowds in Havana.
The speech was given instead by Raul and not in the capital, but in the
provincial city of Camaguey.
His big brother has not vanished entirely from political discourse,
however, writing a weekly newspaper column, "Reflections by the
Commander in Chief", which is also read in full on state television.
No group laments the dearth of real change under Raul more than the
island's dissidents. Human rights progress has been very slight, with
only a marginal reduction in the numbers of activists in prison after
some were released earlier this year on health grounds.
Oscar Espinosa, an economist who was among those set free after being
incarcerated in 2003 with 74 other dissidents, said: "Everything remains
the same and I really don't see any change."
Elizardo Sanchez, of the Cuban Commission for Human Rights and National
Reconciliation, said the state continued its "systematic and
institutionalised violation" of liberties.
However, the non- appearance last week of Fidel, who will be 81 this
month, has been seized upon as a clear sign that his ever returning to
full authority could now be ruled out. Some observers suggest,
meanwhile, that Raul, 76, might begin to usher in more substantive
reforms once his elder brother is dead.
The small steps taken by Cuba after the collapse of the Soviet Union in
the early 1990s to embrace quasi-capitalism on the Chinese model,
including private small-holdings for a few farmers and some tourism
entrepreneurship, were introduced by Raul and he may seek eventually to
expand the experiment.
In his speech last week, Raul repeated an offer to open dialogue with
the US in return for an end to its decades-long economic embargo. He
also freely acknowledged the failure of Cuba's economy to raise
standards of living on the island, where the average wage remains at £7
a month.
Manuel Cuesta Morua, who is considered a moderate opponent of the
regime, said: "We are waiting for the definitive transfer of power to
Raul Castro so his actions can be measured."
The analysis in Washington is much the same. Thomas Fingar, a deputy
director of National Intelligence, told a congressional hearing last
month: "This year may mark the end of Fidel Castro's domination of Cuba,
but significant, positive political change is unlikely immediately.
"Although Raul Castro has solidified his own position as successor, it
is too soon to tell what policy course he will take once Fidel has left
the scene."
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article2823094.ece
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