What will happen in Cuba after Castro?

My opinion Andrés Oppenheimer : What will happen in Cuba after Castro?

Tucson, Arizona | Published: 11.06.2006

The day ailing Cuban president-for-life Fidel Castro dies, whenever that
happens, several Latin American countries will express their deepest
condolences, and at the same time ask for a political opening on the island.
Unfortunately, South America's biggest country is not planning to be
among them.
Before I get into why Brazil is likely to stay mum, let me tell you what
I'm hearing in Latin American diplomatic circles. When Castro finally
goes, at least half-a-dozen countries in the region will include a line
in their respective condolence statements noting that his death closes
an era in Cuba's history and should open another.
Some of them, like Costa Rica and El Salvador, may openly ask for
democratic freedoms. Others, like Mexico, Peru, Colombia and Chile, are
likely to do the same with various degrees of diplomatic camouflage.
They will say that Castro will be remembered as a steadfast defender of
Cuba's sovereignty, and that it's time for Cuba to start a process of
national reconciliation — a code word for allowing democratic freedoms.
But last week, after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's landslide
re-election, I asked his top foreign-policy adviser, Marco Aurelio
Garcia, whether Brazil will join the group of countries that will ask
for a political opening in Cuba. His answer was a clear "no."
Garcia, who is president of Brazil's ruling Workers' Party and was chief
of Lula da Silva's re-election campaign, told me, "I don't think we will
ask anything like that. Brazil will ask that Cuba be allowed to solve
its problems by itself. That means that there (should) be no outside
pressures."
Why? I asked. There are international principles calling for the
collective defense of democracy. Besides, when countries like Brazil
lived under rightist dictatorships, didn't Garcia and his leftist
colleagues now in government, who were in hiding or in exile at the
time, ask for international pressure to speed up democratic changes in
their country?
"I am absolutely convinced that outside pressures are very bad," said
Garcia, who is often portrayed in the Brazilian press as Lula da Silva's
liaison with Cuba and Venezuela. "And that's more the case in a country
(like Cuba) that has a very strong national sentiment."
How do we know what Cuba's national sentiment is? I asked. There hasn't
been a free election there in more than four decades, and there is no
freedom of expression, I argued.
"Well, it's not us who are going to tell Cuba how it must solve its
problems. Let me tell you very frankly, we have a disagreement with the
United States in that respect," Garcia said.
That's perfectly fine, I responded. I'm not saying that Brazil should
back the U.S. embargo on Cuba. But what about doing what Mexico and
Europe's modern democracies are doing, which is to oppose both U.S.
economic sanctions on Cuba and Cuba's repression of its own people, I asked.
Without changing his line, Garcia tacitly conceded that he expects to
see political changes in a post-Castro Cuba.
"This will be solved by itself if we don't exert pressure from outside,"
Garcia said. "Cuba will have its political process, (since) it would be
normal for there to be a political evolution in the country. Obviously,
Fidel's death would create a new circumstance."
He added, "But what concerns us a lot is that, if Cuba is suddenly
subjected to a lot of pressures, even the goals some countries are
pursuing will become more difficult to achieve."
My opinion: I disagree. Garcia is right in that heavy-handed pressures
would backfire, but respectful suggestions from Latin American countries
that Castro's death opens the door to a new period in Cuba's history,
accompanied by offers of economic aid linked to a political opening,
would surely help.
An old saying from the 1910-17 Mexican Revolution goes: "No general can
resist a $50,000 cannonade." Well, I think it will be hard for Cuban
generals to resist a $5 billion cannonade from the international
community to rebuild Cuba on the condition that it ceases to be a police
state.

My opinion
Andrés Oppenheimer
Andrés Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami
Herald. His e-mail is aoppenheimer@miamiherald.com.

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