Castro video shows illness is serious

Posted on Fri, Nov. 03, 2006

CUBA
Castro video shows illness is serious
There's no question Fidel Castro is very sick, but the U.S. intelligence
community is unsure if he is suffering from cancer.
BY PABLO BACHELET AND FRANCES ROBLES
frobles@MiamiHerald.com

Fidel Castro's movements are slow and awkward, his speech slow and
shaky. His oversized track suit and bathrobe hide any sign of his
intestinal surgery, like a colostomy bag. And his own words hint that
death remains a possibility.

''I have been saying it for a while -- that the recovery would be
prolonged and not exempt of risk. In reality, well, I'm coming along
just as it had been foreseen,'' Castro said in a video released Saturday
before adding, ``But I'm not worried. I have no fear of what may happen.''

But three months after the 80-year-old Cuban leader temporarily ceded
presidential powers to his brother Raúl following ''complicated''
surgery, the exact details of his illness remain Cuba's most closely
guarded secret -- and the subject of widespread rumors and speculation.

The latest Castro video aired on Cuban TV served as a ''proof of life''
of sorts. Rumors that he had died last week were churning so briskly
that even Castro felt he had to respond. Prior to Saturday's video, more
than a month had passed since any photos of the Cuban leader had been
made public, adding fuel to the rumor fires.

Contacto, a bilingual magazine out of California, reported on its
website two weeks ago that sources ''close to the circle of power'' in
Cuba had said he was in a coma. Time magazine last month cited anonymous
U.S. sources saying some in the Bush administration are convinced Castro
has terminal cancer.

''Now let's see what they say. Now they'll have to resuscitate me,
huh?'' Castro said in the video. ``They're making fools of themselves.''

Since announcing on July 31 that intestinal bleeding had required
surgery, the government of Cuba has offered only a handful of photos and
videos of Castro, and nothing other than verbal reassurances that he's
recovering.

Yet the images released over the past three months show Castro in an
apparent slow decline. He has acknowledged losing 41 pounds, but then
said he regained about half of that.

His bulky track suit and bathrobe -- he has yet to appear in regular
clothes -- always cover up his midsection, leaving open the possibility
that he's been fitted with a colostomy bag. But he still sports a full
head of hair and a beard, suggesting he has not undergone chemotherapy.

EXTENDED RECOVERY

The latest video showed him doing what appeared to be walk-in-place
exercises, slowly swinging his elbows as his slippered feet, set wide,
marked time but did not move forward.

That ''is exactly what you would have expected for somebody who has been
ill for an extended period of time, who has not been active,'' said
University of Miami gastroenterologist Dr. Jeffrey Raskin. ``You have a
wide-based gait to steady yourself because you're weak. . . . Probably
in his own environment, he's walking around with a walker.''

Raskin and Dr. Charles Gerson, a gastroenterologist at Mount Sinai in
New York, both said that Castro's three-months-and-counting recovery
suggest a serious illness, such as cancer.

''Usually for a benign condition if you have surgery, after a month or
six weeks you are back to normal,'' Gerson said. ``Three months after
surgery, he should be better.''

The U.S. intelligence community believes Castro is ''gravely ill'' but
lacks any hard evidence that he has terminal cancer, several officials
said on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

A former U.S. government official, who requested anonymity to avoid
jeopardizing his contacts with the Bush administration, said Washington
has obtained what he called ''pretty reliable'' accounts that indicate
Castro is not recovering as well as Cuba claims.

''The latest I've heard was still pretty grave for Castro,'' the former
official said, adding that he has not been told the nature of Castro's
ailment. ``Castro may not make it through the New Year.''

U.S. intelligence still believes that Castro is suffering from
Parkinson's disease, a degenerative neurological disorder, as first
reported by The Miami Herald last year.

One well-connected South American official consulted by The Miami Herald
said his country's intelligence service indeed believes that Castro has
a slow-progressing cancer. It was unclear how the agency has come to
believe this, and the official's report could not be independently
confirmed.

`RESTING A BIT'

Cuban officials continue to insist at every turn that Castro is
recovering, and preparations are reported to be continuing to celebrate
his birthday. He turned 80 on Aug. 13 but celebrations, including a
military parade and massive rally, were put off until Dec. 2 because of
the surgery.

''He is well. He's been resting a bit because of the operation he had,''
Castro's other brother, Ramón Castro, 82, told the Associated Press this
week. ``It's been published that he's going to start working again.
We're trying to hold him back a bit longer, though.''

But even if he officially resumes his jobs as president and head of the
Cuban Communist Party, U.S. officials say they remain convinced that he
will not be able to physically command Cuba as he had for nearly five
decades.

McClatchy Washington Bureau Chief John Walcott, Miami Herald staff
writer Jacob Goldstein and Miami Herald translator Renato Pérez
contributed to this report.

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