Public Diplomacy for Cuba at Fidel Castro's Last Gasp

Public Diplomacy for Cuba at Fidel Castro's Last Gasp
By Stephen Johnson, 8/23/2006 1:37:41 AM

Fidel Castro is nothing if not a master thespian. His disappearance and
purported power shift to his brother Raúl on July 31 is still a mystery.
According to Miami Herald columnist Andrés Oppenheimer, it could be a
cynical charade to smoke out disloyal underlings or a genuine health
crisis, or perhaps the dictator died and the regime needs time to regroup.

In any case, the drama is akin to Fidel's speeches: lengthy, opaque, and
leaving anxious Cubans wondering what will happen to them next. Perhaps
they should stop worrying and take charge of their own lives. But for
them to feel confident enough to do that, they will need plenty of
encouragement from sympathetic democrats around the world.

That doesn't mean President George Bush should announce that the U.S.
government will do the job for them. On the contrary, this is the Cuban
people's moment to reflect on what they've been deprived of over the
last 47 years, lose their fear, and consider how to reclaim their
future. That requires a judicious, coordinated communications strategy
on the part of the democratic world.

Officially, the United States and other governments have primed the pump
for years through foreign broadcasting efforts like Radio and TV Martí,
some of which get through unjammed. Commercial radio stations also reach
the island, and foreign visitors sometimes bring literature to break the
regime's information blockade.

The good news is that the Cuban government has no new ideas or solutions
to the island's problems. Fidel and Raúl expressly set up the Communist
Party and the National Assembly as parallel organizations, peopled by
rivals, to compete in approving and enforcing the Maximum Leader's
pronouncements. They provide an institutional facade for a one-man state.

The bedrock of the regime, the Revolutionary Armed Forces which Raúl
created, is unlikely to do more than put boots on heads for a short
period. According to former Castro official Alcibiades Hidalgo, its
mission is to prepare for "War of All the People" and enforce martial
law in case of Fidel's incapacitation or death, but not much more.
Again, it lacks ideas outside of defending the fatherland against a U.S.
invasion.

Outside messages to the Cuban people should be both personal and
institutional. It would help if the Martís and responsible commercial
broadcasters feature candid messages from Cubans living abroad,
thoughtfully emphasizing that what they do with their own lives is their
business, not the state's. They should explain how the government should
belong to the people, not to its leaders.

Personal stories can highlight the individual successes of the Cuban
diaspora's entrepreneurs, professionals, sports heroes, and celebrities
who have benefited from living in free societies throughout the world.

To avoid misidentifying dissidents with the United States, which the
regime considers its adversary, European and Latin American broadcasters
should be the ones to discuss homegrown transition initiatives like the
Varela Project and National Dialogue, both created by Cuban dissidents.

It is also time for Latin American countries like Mexico, Chile, and
Uruguay to step up to the plate. While it would be uncharacteristic for
them to bid either Castro brother ill, it would be appropriate for their
leaders to wish the Cuban people strength in creating a vibrant free
society in which all citizens can realize their dreams.

President Bush should point out how long Cubans have waited for the
freedoms that nearly every American enjoys. And he should also emphasize
that Cuba's next leader should be chosen by the people, through
competitive elections. Smoke-filled rooms are no place for the peoples'
patrimony to be carved up by generals and sycophants.

The Helms-Burton Act that codifies U.S. sanctions against the Cuban
regime is now more important than ever as a negotiating tool. But its
contents should be expressed as incentives to Cuba's leaders.

For instance, Cuba could enjoy basic trade relations with the United
States when ordinary Cubans may establish and run their own businesses
and work for whom they wish. Diplomatic ties could be restored when Cuba
celebrates competitive elections and guarantees certain civil liberties.
Restrictions on American tourists visiting the island could end when
Cubans may travel freely and work where they please.

And then there is the possibility of aid as contemplated by the
President's Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba. Conditions for aid
should be clearly stated to Cuba's leaders and frequently broadcast to
its citizens over U.S.-sponsored Radio and TV Martí, acknowledging that
these choices are theirs, as well.

Sociologists tell us that there are certain times when people are more
apt to change behavior than others, such as when opportunities present
themselves and when they experience a significant emotional event. Both
conditions are present in Cuba.

It may be that the lights have dimmed on Fidel Castro's stage, the
curtain is closing, and the microphone is finally off. Whether the old
man is gasping and still pointing in the air with his index finger seems
increasingly irrelevant. Now is the time for a communications strategy
to open a path for true Cuban self-determination.

Stephen Johnson is Senior Policy Analyst in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.

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