2008-06-26. An Information Service of the Cuba Transition Project,
Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami,
Issue 97, June 25, 2008
José Azel*
What is Raul Castro up to with the announced reforms to Cuba's economic
system? Will these changes lead to a genuine free market economy and
more importantly to a democratic Cuba?
Given the character and nature of Cuba's regime, the measures we are
witnessing are not, as some suggest, baby steps towards a legitimate
transition. For starters, changes such as allowing Cubans to purchase
computers (without internet access), DVD players, cell phones, microwave
ovens, and other electronic appliances appear to be designed primarily
to extract hard-currency remittances from the Cuban exile community
worldwide.
The Cuban population with an average annual per capita income of
approximately $200.00 dollars cannot afford to pay for these items
particularly at the highly inflated prices dictated by Cuba's
military-industrial complex. Nor can Cubans afford to stay at a hotel
where one night stay requires a year's earnings.
Almost by definition, the funds for these purchases will have to come
from exile remittances to family members in the island. It is indeed a
rather clever and cost-free way for the Cuban government to extort hard
currencies form exiles anxious to improve the lives of family members in
the island.
That said, it can still be reasonably argued that these changes signify
a meaningful opening in the rarefied context of Cuba's totalitarianism
and centrally planned economic system. But let us consider the
concomitant evidence. At the same time that these measures are being
introduced, Cuba is moving to annul the licenses of over 150 foreign
firms, prohibiting them from operating in the island.
Restricting market choices while requiring Cubans to purchase
exclusively from the monopolistic military-industrial complex at
exorbitant prices they cannot possibly afford bares no resemblance to
even an embryonic market mechanism much less baby steps. So far the
Cuban reforms are not much more than a sophisticated shake down of the
exile community.
Most importantly, there are no indications that the Cuban government is
planning to introduce political reforms towards democratic pluralism. In
the absence of political reforms and the building of self-governing
regulatory institutions such as an effective and independent legal
system, economic changes will not lead to democracy.
Economic reforms in isolation of serious political reforms will not lead
sequentially and inexorably to democracy in Cuba. In fact, the most
likely outcome of these changes is a transfer of wealth from the state
to the ruling military/party elite. Without the effective protection of
society by democratic institutions and the rule of law, the end result
is likely to be not democracy, but a form of kleptocratic governance
where the economy is subordinated to the interests of the kleptocrats.
* José Azel is a senior research associate at the Institute for Cuban
and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami. Dr. Azel was an adjunct
professor of international business at the School of Business
Administration, University of Miami. He holds undergraduate and master's
degrees in business administration and a Ph. D. in international affairs
from the University of Miami.
http://www.miscelaneasdecuba.net/web/article.asp?artID=15954
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