SHISHIR PRASAD
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ TUESDAY, JANUARY 02, 2007 01:48:01 AM]
MUMBAI: Dictatorships have usually thrived in economies that are
dependant on commodities like sugar, cocoa, coffee, oil, cotton or
metals. A look at dictatorships shows a correlation between price and
longevity. Consider Fidel Castro who tops the dictatorship longevity charts.
Once, Cuba's mainstay was sugar. But who wants sugar these days? No one:
too many calories. But oil is good, and both Muammar Qaddafi of Libya
and Omar Bongo of Gabon are sitting on decent oil reserves. Mr Qaddafi
saw the writing on the wall and improved his manners, while Mr Bongo is
perhaps too small a target to interest the Navy Seals.
There are countries like Togo and Equatorial Guinea, whose economy
depends on cocoa, and over the time that they have been dictatorships,
the inflation-adjusted price of cocoa has remained static at $95-99.
Ditto for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan which are chiefly cotton
countries. The price of cotton hasn't changed very much since they have
been dictatorships. So, none of these countries perhaps face much of a
risk of global scrutiny.
But Mr Castro does. Cuba has large reserves of nickel, the
inflation-adjusted price of which has more than trebled over the past 20
years, going from $4,720 per unit to $16,000. But, considering that
nickel is largely used in making stainless steel, an activity that now
takes place more in China than in the developed world, or in nickel
cadmium mobile batteries, which are fast being replaced by lithium ion
ones, the old Cuban warhorse may be able to smoke his cigar in peace.
In any case, with the way things are going in Iraq, the US Army has its
hands full over the foreseeable future.
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