The new normal

The new normal
The loosening of the embargo will pay dividends far beyond Cuba
Jan 3rd 2015

MARCO RUBIO, a prospective Republican candidate for the White House,
called it "a victory for oppressive governments the world over". Only
"the heinous Castro brothers, who have oppressed the Cuban people for
decades" will benefit, thundered Jeb Bush, a likely rival, who is also
based in Florida. The object of their fury: Barack Obama's startling
decision to loosen America's 54-year-old embargo on Cuba.

Cuba's Communist government is indeed oppressive, while the Castro
brothers can fairly be called heinous and will probably do all they can
to maintain control. Raúl Castro, who took over from Fidel in 2008, has
said he will step down in 2018, but that is not a prelude to free
elections. Nonetheless, easing the embargo is the right thing to do. The
measures that Mr Obama and Mr Castro announced on December
17th—including a deal to restore diplomatic relations and the
liberalisation of travel and remittances—will do much to normalise a
relationship that has been trapped in the sterile logic of the cold war.
But its significance goes beyond that. The embargo warps the United
States' relations with other Latin American countries, as well as their
relations with one another.

The Economist has long argued that the embargo is self-defeating. Rather
than ending the Castros' rule, it has provided an evergreen excuse for
their failures and so helped maintain them in power. The embargo kept
Cuba out of international bodies such as the Organisation of American
States, where other countries could have prodded the island towards
greater openness. It put the United States at odds with most of its
allies and nearly every other country in its hemisphere. It would be
much better if the embargo were got rid of entirely, but its partial
lifting is a step towards normality for the whole region.

So far most of the attention has been on Cuba. The Castros agreed to
release 53 political prisoners (along with an aid worker and an American
spy). Cubans will have more access to the internet, which should loosen
the regime's weakening grip on information. As Cuba's relations thicken
with the democratic giant next door, its citizens' demands for freedom
may grow more insistent. There is no guarantee that such engagement will
unseat the Castros, but the embargo has manifestly failed for half a
century. It has only remained there because of the political clout of a
dwindling number of elderly Cuban exiles in Florida (which also explains
the outrage of the normally more sensible Messrs Bush and Rubio).

But the biggest prize should be the advance of democracy and open
markets in Latin America. The Castros are not the only ones who will be
discomfited by the loss of the American alibi. Venezuela leads a loose
coalition of countries that uses defiance of the United States as an
excuse for policies that stunt economic growth and democratic rights. It
has long supported Cuba (and other Caribbean countries) with sales of
oil at heavily subsidised prices. Even for robustly democratic countries
like Brazil, the American bogeyman makes it easier to justify resistance
to trade deals and to cosy up to uglier regimes.

Now this depressing narrative may change. Venezuela's government,
reeling from the drop in oil prices, faces difficult parliamentary
elections in 2015. Argentina's next president is likely to be less
prickly towards the rest of the world than Cristina Fernández de
Kirchner, who will stand down in 2015. Colombia, an American ally, may
end its 50-year war with the leftist FARC guerrillas if peace talks
succeed. Dilma Rousseff could be a more pragmatic president in her
second term (see article).

The scene is set for a new realism in Latin America. As commodity prices
tumble and economic growth stalls, the region needs open markets, trade
and regional co-operation—including with the yanquis to the north. With
his move on Cuba, Mr Obama has opened the way for the sort of diplomatic
engagement that Latin America rarely enjoyed during his first six years
in office. But Latin America needs to return the compliment. The time
for sulking and striking poses is over—in Brasília and Caracas as well
as Havana and Miami.

Source: America and Cuba: The new normal | The Economist -
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21637388-loosening-embargo-will-pay-dividends-far-beyond-cuba-new-normal