Castro vs Castro

Monocle
MonoColumn - A daily bulletin of news and opinions

Castro vs Castro
September 23, 2010 — Havana
Writer: Corrina Hayes

Fidel Castro is back. Four years after disappearing from view following
an illness that nearly killed him, the former Cuban president – who
remains the head of the country's Communist party – has returned to
public life, giving speeches, leading rallies and even attending a
dolphin show. Fidel's return, at a time when his brother and successor,
Raúl, is pushing through the most dramatic economic reforms in Cuba in
40 years, has prompted speculation that the two Castro brothers are at war.
Raúl's government last week announced that half a million state workers
— one tenth of the country's working population — would be sacked in the
next six months. At the same time, it will relax rules on
self-employment, in the hope that the tiny private sector will absorb
the newly unemployed. In a huge shift towards a market-based economy,
the self-employed will be allowed to employ others, and borrow money to
expand their businesses.
Fidel has avoided talking about domestic issues, focusing instead on
foreign affairs. The one slip up was at the dolphin show, which Fidel
watched with American journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg. El Comandante
allegedly told Goldberg that "the Cuban model doesn't even work for us
anymore". Fidel promptly took the comment back, saying Goldberg missed
the irony. It's just possible the 84-year-old enjoyed the subsequent
media furore that catapulted him back into the limelight.
Fidel's silence on the reforms is being widely debated in Havana. "By
making no mention of domestic politics is he deliberately trying not to
undermine his brother's authority, or is his presence giving weight to
hard-liners who are opposed to the changes currently underway?" wondered
Michael Voss, the BBC's Cuba correspondent.
Cubans say Fidel is violently opposed to the reforms and there is a rift
at the very top of government. Adding fuel to the speculation, the two
brothers barely acknowledged each other when they appeared in parliament
together.
The welcome Fidel has received on his return shows he commands much more
popular support than Raúl. But the younger brother has had four years to
build a government that he trusts. Commentators say that, unlike Fidel,
he needs consensus to do anything dramatic, and so is thought to have
solid backing for the recent reforms.
If Raúl can consolidate his position at the Communist Party Congress,
expected to be held next year, it will be clear he has overcome any
remaining obstacles to reform. Meanwhile, the fireworks will stay behind
closed doors, as both Castro brothers know a public spat would weaken
their grip on power.
Corrina Hayes is a Monocle contributor based in Havana
Tomorrow: Charles Emmerson on Vladimir Putin and the battle for the Arctic

Fidel Castro is back. Four years after disappearing from view following
an illness that nearly killed him, the former Cuban president – who
remains the head of the country's Communist party – has returned to
public life, giving speeches, leading rallies and even attending a
dolphin show. Fidel's return, at a time when his brother and successor,
Raúl, is pushing through the most dramatic economic reforms in Cuba in
40 years, has prompted speculation that the two Castro brothers are at war.

Raúl's government last week announced that half a million state workers
– one tenth of the country's working population –would be sacked in the
next six months. At the same time, it will relax rules on
self-employment, in the hope that the tiny private sector will absorb
the newly unemployed. In a huge shift towards a market-based economy,
the self-employed will be allowed to employ others, and borrow money to
expand their businesses.

Fidel has avoided talking about domestic issues, focusing instead on
foreign affairs. The one slip up was at the dolphin show, which Fidel
watched with American journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg. El Comandante
allegedly told Goldberg that "the Cuban model doesn't even work for us
anymore". Fidel promptly took the comment back, saying Goldberg missed
the irony. It's just possible the 84-year-old enjoyed the subsequent
media furore that catapulted him back into the limelight.

Fidel's silence on the reforms is being widely debated in Havana. "By
making no mention of domestic politics is he deliberately trying not to
undermine his brother's authority, or is his presence giving weight to
hard-liners who are opposed to the changes currently underway?" wondered
Michael Voss, the BBC's Cuba correspondent.

Cubans say Fidel is violently opposed to the reforms and there is a rift
at the very top of government. Adding fuel to the speculation, the two
brothers barely acknowledged each other when they appeared in parliament
together.

The welcome Fidel has received on his return shows he commands much more
popular support than Raúl. But the younger brother has had four years to
build a government that he trusts. Commentators say that, unlike Fidel,
he needs consensus to do anything dramatic, and so is thought to have
solid backing for the recent reforms.

If Raúl can consolidate his position at the Communist Party Congress,
expected to be held next year, it will be clear he has overcome any
remaining obstacles to reform. Meanwhile, the fireworks will stay behind
closed doors, as both Castro brothers know a public spat would weaken
their grip on power.

Corrina Hayes is a Monocle contributor based in Havana

http://www.monocle.com/monocolumn/2010/09/23/castro-vs-castro/