Posted on Thu, Feb. 21, 2008
By ANITA SNOW
Associated Press Writer
HAVANA --
A technocrat whose reforms are credited with saving Cuba's economy after
the Soviet collapse. A former Fidel Castro aide who persuaded the U.N.
to condemn Washington's embargo. The Communist Party's international
relations man.
These men are the next generation of Cuba's leadership, and their
fortunes in the government shake-up coming Sunday will say a lot about
where the island is headed now that the 81-year-old Fidel is giving up
the presidency.
Parliament will almost certainly keep the Castros in charge by replacing
Fidel with his younger brother, Raul. Raul, 76, has been first in line
for the presidency for decades and has been acting president since his
brother took ill in July 2006.
Already, Raul has spoken of unspecified "structural changes" and called
for an open discussion of problems with the system. But it is unclear
what kind of economic openings Cuba's communist leadership is willing to
allow, and its choice of vice presidents will be crucial in determining
whether the president has a mandate for change.
It's up to the National Assembly - the 614-member parliament elected
last month - to meet Sunday to select the 31 people who as the Council
of State will lead Cuba for the next five years.
A parliamentary committee has been privately debating the new council's
makeup for several weeks, probably taking into account the
recommendations of the Castro brothers as well as top Communist Party
leaders.
On Sunday, the assembly will name the president, first vice president
and five other vice presidents, and 24 other members of the Council of
State. Fidel, who was re-elected to the National Assembly, could remain
on the council but is unlikely to receive a top position.
The current Council of State is overdue for renewal, with two-thirds of
its members over 60 and only two each in their 30s and 40s. Only four
women sit on the council, and about half the members fought in the
revolution in the late 1950s.
While nothing is certain, most people expect Raul will be the next
president. The No. 2 slot remains more up for grabs.
The leading candidate is Carlos Lage, balding and baby-faced, who at 56
is a generation younger than the Castro brothers. He is already a vice
president, and as Cabinet secretary is a sort of de facto prime
minister. Quiet and unassuming, Lage has always sidestepped public feuds.
He is credited with designing the modest economic reforms in the early
1990s that helped Cuba survive the Soviet collapse. With Raul's support,
he pushed through proposals for limited self-employment, foreign
investment, cooperative farms, farmers markets and the legal use of the
U.S. dollar.
Those moves created cash flow that improved people's lives without
sparking political turmoil many Cubans fear after witnessing the fall of
communism in eastern Europe. But then, as now, both Lage and the Castros
said there would be no changes at the expense of socialism, including
the free social services most Cubans consider a birthright.
While he supported temporary, limited economic openings in a time of
crisis, Lage has suggested that is as far as he wants to go, telling
state managers last year that Cuba will not copy the forays of
communist-ruled China and Vietnam into capitalism.
Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque has a reputation for more
ideological orthodoxy, especially given his seven years as Fidel's
personal secretary. He fiercely defended the government's crackdown on
dissidents in 2003, calling them mercenaries.
Short, slightly stocky and freckled, the 42-year-old has a narrower
experience in government than Lage. But he has directed Cuba's foreign
policy for nine years, and as U.N. ambassador he is largely credited
with orchestrating U.N. resolutions calling for an end to the U.S.
economic embargo.
Less well known is Fernando Remirez de Estenoz, 56, but he is someone to
watch. He served as chief of Cuba's mission in Washington in 1995-2001,
a period in which the Baltimore Orioles played baseball in Havana and
young Elian Gonzalez was returned from Florida.
Remirez now serves as the Communist Party's representative abroad and
has traveled with Raul to Vietnam and China. With perfect English and a
pleasant, bespectacled face, Remirez would be a key player if the next
U.S. president accepts Raul's pleas for talks.
One man who could thwart efforts to put a younger man in the No. 2 spot
is Ricardo Alarcon, who would have to resign as president of the
National Assembly to take the position. At 70, he is a long shot, but he
has wide experience, including a stint as foreign minister and two tours
as U.N. ambassador.
Urbane and eloquent, Alarcon speaks fluent English and has long been
Fidel's point man on Cuba-U.S. affairs, representing his country in
talks with U.S. officials. He was a key player in Cuba's successful
battle to return Elian Gonzalez to his Cuban father.
Fidel seems ready for the generational shift, referring to both older
and younger leaders in his resignation letter.
"Fortunately, our process can still count on cadres from the old guard
and others who were very young in the early days of the Revolution," he
wrote. "... There is also the intermediate generation, which learned
with us the basics of the complex and almost unattainable art of
organizing and leading a revolution."
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