2007-06-29. The Latell Report, June 2007
Surprise, intrigue, secrecy, and deception have been hallmarks of Fidel
Castro's leadership style since the late 1940s. It is no less so today,
as he continues to convalesce on the margins of power, than when he was
a young conspirator and revolutionary, or during all the decades when he
exercised untrammeled power.
As a university student he was implicated in murders and assassination
attempts, though no charges were ever brought. He has often reminisced
about the violent part he played during the carnage of the Colombian
bogotazo in April 1948. And although his retellings of those tumultuous
days are shrouded, reputable Colombians believe he had some
responsibility for the murder of the political figure that ignited the
rioting.
In the early 1950s, he demonstrated an extraordinary intuitive
understanding of intelligence tradecraft. After instructing his brother
Raul in Marxist ideology and coaxing him to join Cuba's communist party,
Fidel then "dangled" the compliant young Raul literally under the noses
of the KGB. Raul became Fidel's "double agent," operating within Cuba's
communist party and maintaining contact with Soviet intelligence. The
deception was so exquisitely conceived that until he died in 1971,
Soviet premier Khrushchev was convinced Raul had been working for Soviet
interests without Fidel's knowledge.
Today, Fidel is concocting new surprises. His physical health has
improved since the surgeries he underwent last summer and the months of
precarious convalescence. He is still debilitated, perhaps gravely
impaired, and is unlikely ever to exercise power as he did in the past.
Yet, since late March he has reemerged in the roles of senior statesman
and deus ex machina commentator, seeming to impose himself on his
successors in a way that transcends figurehead status.
Castro is relishing his role as Cuba's chief pundit, as of June 26
issuing twenty two "reflections" on a curious and unpredictable range of
topics. He has ranted with comparable fervor about American policies he
despises and the need for the world to replace incandescent light bulbs
with fluorescent ones. Until recently, the themes he addressed were
oddly detached, more pedantic than incantatory. He barely touched on
domestic issues, and most observers -- on the island as well as off--
were concluding he no longer had the will or ability to engage in policy
making, or that his successors were restraining him.
Then, on June 17 he sprung a major surprise, signing a tirade that he
labeled a "manifesto for the Cuban people." Unlike all the other
"reflections" before and since, it was a militant and intransigent
statement in which he seemed to draw a line in the sand indicating his
opposition to any economic liberalization by his successors. The
manifesto filled the entire front page of Granma.
Then, later the same week, on June 22, he issued "a reflection on my
reflections," briefly announcing that he would no longer expect his
treatises to get front page billing, and in the case of shorter ones, no
press treatment at all. He allowed that "the party's ideological
department and the executive director of the council of state may
propose other options." That sounded as if he was actually ceding
authority over the circulation of his ruminations to others.
The thrust in the form of the manifesto, and the subsequent parry, both
within the same week, raise the possibility that intense infighting has
flared within the top ranks of the leadership. Could it be that
raulistas seeking to begin implementing economic reforms have grown
weary of Fidel's unpredictable interferences?
Is it possible they have been allowing him, even inducing him, to
embarrass himself as he unmistakably has in at least some of his
"reflections?" His extended televised interview with an obsequious Cuban
reporter, aired on June 4, did nothing either to enhance his credibility
as a viable leader. Viewers saw a fragile, drained old man who had
difficulty expressing complex thoughts.
The approaching anniversary on July 26 may provide answers, as well as
an ideal opportunity for Fidel to spring one or more surprises. He and
others have recently dropped hints that he may soon make his first
public appearance since last July. Assembly president Alarcon accurately
presaged Fidel's June 4 television interview when he said in late April
that "it is preferable he reappear on television before appearing in a
large public event."
Fidel and his ally Venezuelan president Chavez have recently made
references to Fidel again donning his trademark olive green uniform.
Since last July Fidel has only been seen in athletic clothes, and would
never appear at a public event in such attire. In mid June Chavez told
reporters during a visit to Havana that "Fidel has his uniform there and
he looks out of the corner of his eye" at it. Perhaps learning first
hand of Fidel's intentions, he added, "I think we are approaching the
hour when he will wear his military uniform again."
Fidel had already written, in a "reflection" published in Granma on May
23, that "there was talk about a date when I would make a public
appearance dressed in my olive green fatigues." To do so certainly seems
to be on his mind, though it is not at all clear he would have the
stamina to step out again at a public event in uniform.
But should he do so, and address a crowd, however briefly, the biggest
surprise would be in what he might say. In such a moment of high drama,
with the rapt attention of observers across the globe, he might announce
that he had rescinded the proclamation of last July in which he
provisionally yielded power. That would be consistent with the
implacable, irrepressible figure the world has known for so long.
But alternatively, he might seize the moment by announcing definitively
his abdication from power. Rumors I have heard emanating from Havana
suggest that his wife Dalia, and other close family members, are urging
Fidel to announce his retirement while standing before a crowd of
Cubans, in uniform, at the end of a speech, in a highly charged,
ultimate dramatic gesture.
*********
I want to acknowledge the help that was provided in the preparation of
this article by my University of Miami student research assistant,
Vanessa Lopez.
************
Dr. Brian Latell, distinguished Cuba analyst and recent author of the
book, After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next
Leader, is a Senior Research Associate at ICCAS. He has informed
American and foreign presidents, cabinet members, and legislators about
Cuba and Fidel Castro in a number of capacities. He served in the early
1990s as National Intelligence Officer for Latin America at the Central
Intelligence Agency and taught at Georgetown University for a quarter
century. Dr. Latell has written, lectured, and consulted extensively.
**************
The CTP, funded by a grant from the U.S. Agency for International
Development (USAID), can be contacted at P.O. Box 248174, Coral Gables,
Florida 33124-3010, Tel: 305-284-CUBA (2822), Fax: 305-284-4875, and by
email at ctp.iccas@miami.edu.
Welcome to The Latell Report. The Report, analyzing Cuba's contemporary
domestic and foreign policy, is published monthly except August and
December and distributed by the electronic information service of the
Cuba Transition Project (CTP) at the University of Miami's Institute for
Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS).
The Latell Report is a publication of ICCAS and no government funding
has been used in its publication. The opinions expressed herein are
those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ICCAS
and/or the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
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