In Cuba, a struggle over history's march to democracy
By John Hughes, 1 hour, 47 minutes ago
provo, utah - Two recent events in Cuba underline the uncertainty that
swirls around a post-Castro regime.
On Friday, a hospitalized
Fidel Castro met with a senior member of the Chinese Communist Party's
Politburo, Wu Guanzheng. It may be no coincidence that Mr. Wu's
specialty is Communist Party discipline.
About a week earlier, opposition parties, Catholics, Social Democrats,
and liberals, in a rare and usually dangerous kind of dissent, issued a
"unity agreement," pledging to work for free elections and the
democratic selection of a new leader for Cuba. Such actions usually
bring sharp reaction from Cuba's ruling Communist Party.
All this is taking place amid continued speculation inside and outside
Cuba about Mr. Castro's ability to return to power, temporarily
transferred to his brother Raúl during his months-long hospitalization.
Raúl Castro is a reliable bureaucrat but lacks the charisma of his brother.
Granma, the official party newspaper in Cuba, carried a picture of
Castro and Wu, presumably shot in the hospital. Castro is dressed in a
track suit and is standing. Party officials claim that his recovery is
going well and that he will be back to work soon.
However, there has been no indication of whether Castro will be present
at the big annual May 1 celebration, where he traditionally has
delivered one of his four-hour speeches. Cuban observers in the United
States point out that since his hospitalization, there have been no
pictures of Castro walking, nor has his voice been heard on radio or
television. Messages from him have supposedly been written by him, but
they have been delivered by party officials. Speculation is that the
messages are going through a filter to ensure that there is no deviation
from the tough party line.
Meanwhile, Cuba's rickety economy is beset by continuing problems. This
year's sugar harvest was well below normal, and tourism is down by 7
percent. Cuba faces a continuing shortage of oil and has been existing
on deeply discounted shipments from Venezuela, whose president, Hugo
Chávez, sees Castro as a leftist brother in arms. Cuba's own oil is
heavy with sulphur, which is highly corrosive.
Some power plants have been shut down as a result of using the damaging
Cuban oil. Oil from Venezuela was intended for Cuban domestic use but
the Cuban regime is selling some of it for badly needed cash to solve
some of its financial problems.
While Venezuela's Mr. Chávez idolizes Castro, nations such as Spain that
may once have been friendly to the Cuban regime are expressing concern
about its continuing clampdown and imprisonment of dissidents and
would-be reformers.
Two former Polish presidents, Lech Walesa and Aleksander Kwasniewski,
issued a letter in March to the Cuban people, drawing on Poland's
experience of abandoning communism for democracy. Published in the Miami
Herald, the letter said Poland's example was a "testimony to the victory
of agreement over conflict, dialogue over quarrel, good over evil."
The letter said the "time of change is imminent. The breath of awakening
democracy in Cuba can be felt even … in Poland. Be persistent and in
solidarity, be patient and indomitable, ready to construct common future
for all Cubans, so that your beautiful country can become a friendly
home to all those of your citizens who today inhabit the island and
those who have been forced to abandon it." That last phrase is an
obvious reference to the large Cuban exile community in Miami.
In a trenchant challenge to the Castro regime, the letter reminded it
that "the time of tyrants and running the country while following 'the
only right line' is coming to an end. A triumphant march of democracy
cannot be stopped. We in Poland know this better than anyone else."
The letter was timed for the fourth anniversary of a Cuban crackdown on
dissenters called the "black spring," an event that the letter called
"yet another blow against the democratic opposition."
Unless Cuba remains a startling exception to communism's march to
democracy elsewhere, change will come to a post-Castro era. Cuban expert
Julia Sweig argued in "Foreign Affairs" earlier this year that power in
Cuba has already been successfully transferred to a new set of leaders
"whose priority is to preserve the system while permitting only very
gradual reform." "[T]he pace and nature of that change will be mostly
imperceptible," she forecasts.
We must see how the vigor and determination of Cuban dissidents measures
up to the vigor and determination with which Castro has imposed
communism on Cuba for almost 50 years.
• John Hughes, a former editor of the Monitor, is currently a professor
of communications at Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20070425/cm_csm/yhughes25_1
By John Hughes, 1 hour, 47 minutes ago
provo, utah - Two recent events in Cuba underline the uncertainty that
swirls around a post-Castro regime.
On Friday, a hospitalized
Fidel Castro met with a senior member of the Chinese Communist Party's
Politburo, Wu Guanzheng. It may be no coincidence that Mr. Wu's
specialty is Communist Party discipline.
About a week earlier, opposition parties, Catholics, Social Democrats,
and liberals, in a rare and usually dangerous kind of dissent, issued a
"unity agreement," pledging to work for free elections and the
democratic selection of a new leader for Cuba. Such actions usually
bring sharp reaction from Cuba's ruling Communist Party.
All this is taking place amid continued speculation inside and outside
Cuba about Mr. Castro's ability to return to power, temporarily
transferred to his brother Raúl during his months-long hospitalization.
Raúl Castro is a reliable bureaucrat but lacks the charisma of his brother.
Granma, the official party newspaper in Cuba, carried a picture of
Castro and Wu, presumably shot in the hospital. Castro is dressed in a
track suit and is standing. Party officials claim that his recovery is
going well and that he will be back to work soon.
However, there has been no indication of whether Castro will be present
at the big annual May 1 celebration, where he traditionally has
delivered one of his four-hour speeches. Cuban observers in the United
States point out that since his hospitalization, there have been no
pictures of Castro walking, nor has his voice been heard on radio or
television. Messages from him have supposedly been written by him, but
they have been delivered by party officials. Speculation is that the
messages are going through a filter to ensure that there is no deviation
from the tough party line.
Meanwhile, Cuba's rickety economy is beset by continuing problems. This
year's sugar harvest was well below normal, and tourism is down by 7
percent. Cuba faces a continuing shortage of oil and has been existing
on deeply discounted shipments from Venezuela, whose president, Hugo
Chávez, sees Castro as a leftist brother in arms. Cuba's own oil is
heavy with sulphur, which is highly corrosive.
Some power plants have been shut down as a result of using the damaging
Cuban oil. Oil from Venezuela was intended for Cuban domestic use but
the Cuban regime is selling some of it for badly needed cash to solve
some of its financial problems.
While Venezuela's Mr. Chávez idolizes Castro, nations such as Spain that
may once have been friendly to the Cuban regime are expressing concern
about its continuing clampdown and imprisonment of dissidents and
would-be reformers.
Two former Polish presidents, Lech Walesa and Aleksander Kwasniewski,
issued a letter in March to the Cuban people, drawing on Poland's
experience of abandoning communism for democracy. Published in the Miami
Herald, the letter said Poland's example was a "testimony to the victory
of agreement over conflict, dialogue over quarrel, good over evil."
The letter said the "time of change is imminent. The breath of awakening
democracy in Cuba can be felt even … in Poland. Be persistent and in
solidarity, be patient and indomitable, ready to construct common future
for all Cubans, so that your beautiful country can become a friendly
home to all those of your citizens who today inhabit the island and
those who have been forced to abandon it." That last phrase is an
obvious reference to the large Cuban exile community in Miami.
In a trenchant challenge to the Castro regime, the letter reminded it
that "the time of tyrants and running the country while following 'the
only right line' is coming to an end. A triumphant march of democracy
cannot be stopped. We in Poland know this better than anyone else."
The letter was timed for the fourth anniversary of a Cuban crackdown on
dissenters called the "black spring," an event that the letter called
"yet another blow against the democratic opposition."
Unless Cuba remains a startling exception to communism's march to
democracy elsewhere, change will come to a post-Castro era. Cuban expert
Julia Sweig argued in "Foreign Affairs" earlier this year that power in
Cuba has already been successfully transferred to a new set of leaders
"whose priority is to preserve the system while permitting only very
gradual reform." "[T]he pace and nature of that change will be mostly
imperceptible," she forecasts.
We must see how the vigor and determination of Cuban dissidents measures
up to the vigor and determination with which Castro has imposed
communism on Cuba for almost 50 years.
• John Hughes, a former editor of the Monitor, is currently a professor
of communications at Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20070425/cm_csm/yhughes25_1
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