Fidel Castro's era in Cuba may be over - experts

Fidel Castro's era in Cuba may be over - experts
02 Dec 2006 19:42:25 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Jeff Franks

HAVANA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Fidel Castro's absence on Saturday from a
major military parade in his honor was the surest sign yet that his
47-year-long reign as Cuba's undisputed leader has come to an end,
experts said.

They said illness and old age had done what 10 U.S. presidents could
not, clearing the way for his brother Raul Castro to take full command
of the communist island.

Cuban officials have insisted he will recover from intestinal surgery in
late July that forced him to temporarily turn over power to Raul, his
longtime defense minister.

As late as Friday, Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage said in a closing
ceremony for Castro's 80th birthday celebration that "Fidel is
recovering, we will have him among us, he will continue leading."

But his inability this week to attend any of the birthday events,
culminating with Saturday's parade in Havana's Revolution Square, says
otherwise, analysts said.

"I think Dec. 2 clearly marks the end of the Fidel era. We have now
unambiguously entered a new post-Fidel phase in the revolution," said
Frank Mora, a professor of national security strategy at the National
War College in Washington.

Castro has not been seen in public for more than four months, and looked
feeble in the few photos and videos the government has released, leading
many analysts to predict a reduced role for him in the future.

But they still watched closely this week to see if the bearded
revolutionary who has survived war and assassination attempts and been a
fixture on the world scene since 1959 might show up at his birthday
celebration in better health.

Even after he sent a message to an opening birthday gala on Tuesday
saying he was not up to attending, many experts and Cubans thought he
would show up for the military parade, the kind of grand occasion at
which he has reveled in the past.

TRANSITION 'A DONE DEAL'

Now it is obvious, said Latin American expert Julia Sweig of the Council
of Foreign Relations in Washington, "Fidel really is not well enough to
make public appearances of the sort that the Dec. 2 events involve."

"The transition (of power) is a done deal," she said.

Cuba's future is now in the hands of Raul Castro, a behind-the-scenes
figure who took center stage on Saturday instead of his brother and,
analysts said, brings with him the prospect of change.

In a speech at the parade's start, he did not mention Fidel Castro's
condition or absence, instead praising the military as the "soul of the
revolution" and blasting the arch-enemy United States for numerous
transgressions, including its long-standing trade embargo on Cuba.

But he also said Cuba was disposed to negotiate with the United States
about their differences, which Dan Erikson of the Washington think tank
Inter-American Dialogue said "marks a significant departure from Fidel's
long-standing preference for conflict and confrontation."

Most analysts have said they expect Raul Castro, 75, to undertake
gradual economic reforms to address discontent among ordinary Cubans who
earn an average of just $15 a month.

He has made the military into a virtual corporation with holdings in
agriculture, industry and tourism to raise revenue for its operations
and is believed to be more practical about the economy than his brother.

"Fidel Castro really does not have an interest in things like economic
growth or GDP or competition. All those things that are the motors and
measures of a capitalist economy to him are completely anathema," Sweig
said.

"So his absence is an opportunity for some economic space."

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