Cuba prepares for life without Castro

Cuba prepares for life without Castro
By Paul Nussbaum
Inquirer Staff Writer

HAVANA, Cuba - "I want to leave, I don't want to leave," the young Cuban
man said, spreading his hands. "I think differently every day."

Like many Cubans, he is torn between hope and resignation as he ponders
an existence unlike any he has known in his 27 years: life without Fidel
Castro.

Castro, who has ruled Cuba since 1959, was too sick to attend his
belated 80th-birthday celebrations last week, and he is widely believed
to be terminally ill. Citing "an acute intestinal crisis, with sustained
bleeding," he temporarily transferred his powers as president and
Communist Party first secretary to his younger brother Raul, the defense
minister, on July 31. He has since been seen by the public only in
videos and photos.

While last week's festivities and marches went on without him, Castro's
Cuba also proceeded with life as usual, full of contradictions,
aspirations and the countless hardships of el bloqueo ("the blockade"),
the U.S. economic embargo against the island.

"We hope things will change, but who knows?" said the young Cuban, who
asked that his name not be published for fear of government reprisals.
He sat in his three-bedroom apartment in central Havana, windows open to
the tropical breezes and the cacophony of the street, surrounded by his
favorite technological gadgets - an old Gold Star television, a DVD
player, a tape player, a CD player, and a stack of American movie DVDs.
He has a cellphone, but not a computer. "No one really knows what's
going on, because we don't get any information."

The official position is that Castro may die, but his revolution won't.

"I don't think that anything institutional will change as a
consequence," said Tomas Cardenas Garcia, a member of Cuba's national
assembly and the president of the Commission of Local Organizations.
"People will change, but the principles won't."

"We are a country of institutions," said Jorge Soberon, of the Ministry
of External Relations. "We have the ideas and example of Fidel, and we
know that will be with us forever."

International observers agree little is likely to change, at least
immediately.

Damian Fernandez, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida
International University in Miami, said: "The fact that Raul and Fidel
have had these six months of preparation time has been heaven-sent for
them... . Fidel could transfer the baton and have a measure of control.

"What happens next is less certain, but I would expect more continuity
than change in the short term and mid-term. The forces of inertia will
be strong."

Fernandez said, "The other issue is that there is no strong national
opposition that is a serious threat to the regime." The challenge for
Raul Castro, he said, will be to make enough economic changes to satisfy
the population's desire for more economic freedom without threatening
the power of the leaders.

"He'll have to deal with a very poor Cuba," Fernandez said. "But people
don't expect much. Just opening a little bit will give him legitimacy
and support."

The United States has long wanted to see an end to communist rule in Cuba.

During an interview on Fox News last month, Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice said the goal was to have Cuba hold democratic elections.

"When there is a transition, whenever that comes, it has to be the goal
of the United States and the goal of the international community to
insist that the Cuban people get to make a choice," she said.

But "the U.S. won't be a factor" in influencing post-Fidel Cuba,
Fernandez said. "The U.S. has painted itself into a corner and is
ill-prepared for the succession."

Cuba's state-run economy has been slowly recovering from the collapse of
the Soviet Union, which had long been the island's chief supplier.
Oil-rich Venezuela, under President Hugo Chavez, has become Cuba's new
favorite patron. And bright blue Chinese-made buses are now one of the
most visible signs of the country's $500 million annual trade with China.

Government officials here say the island's economy grew by 11 percent
last year; outside economists put the growth at about 8 percent.

Tourism, which now dwarfs sugar as Cuba's most important commodity,
draws visitors from Europe, Latin America, Asia and Canada to chic new
hotels and state-run restaurants and private paladeras, restaurants
within private homes. U.S. citizens, though, are scarce, because a U.S.
travel ban prevents most Americans from spending money here.

Cuba is a country of contradictions, a poor Caribbean state with a
highly educated population and a free health-care system that is one of
the best in the developing world. Food is rationed. An occasional
horse-drawn cart shares the roads with ancient American Chevrolets and
Soviet Ladas, toilet seats are rare and toilet paper is a luxury. The
per-capita gross domestic product is about $3,500 a year, compared with
$43,500 in the United States. Unemployment is virtually non-existent,
but doctors and engineers may make more money driving taxis than
practicing their professions.

Lillian Holloway, a Philadelphia student at a Cuban medical school in
Havana, said there was a misconception in the United States that
"everyone is trying to come [to the United States]. The ones that are
most unhappy are the ones with the most. People aren't absolutely
miserable. They would like to see things change, within the system."

Although the U.S. administration is a favorite target of Cuban officials
and anti-Bush billboards are prominently displayed, Cuban citizens have
a complex relationship with the United States. They are very fond of
American music and movies and pirated tapes of TV shows, and many have
relatives in the United States. But they are leery of what they see as
U.S. designs on their country.

"People don't want the Cubans in Miami to come back," said the young
Cuban in his apartment. "But every month, someone I know leaves. Just
last month, one of my friends went to Guatemala, and then to the United
States. I have to make new friends all the time."

As he talked, the doorbell rang, signaling the arrival of the daily food
delivery. Each family gets a monthly food ration based on the number of
people. Today, the food man brought 30 eggs for the month, a ration for
three people. (The young man has not bothered to tell the authorities
that his mother and brother have moved out, and that he and his
girlfriend live alone in the apartment.) A day earlier, the food man
brought three small pieces of chicken - a two-week supply.

Like many Cubans, the young man lives in two economies - the official
one and the unofficial one. He makes most of his money selling pirated
copies of DVDs. He has a friend whose black market business is repairing
and selling cars, without government authorization.

"I'd like to open my own business, to work with cars, but that's not
allowed now," said the friend.

Cars are very expensive - he says he paid the equivalent of $20,000
(borrowed from an uncle out of the country) for a 1998 Mitsubishi. But
housing is very cheap. The young Cuban said he paid the equivalent of
$600 to buy his three-bedroom apartment, and now he rents rooms to
tourists to supplement his income.

"People expect better things," he said of the unknowable future. "But we
have to live in the present."

To hear interviews with U.S. medical students in Cuba and ask a question
about the program, go to http://go.philly.com/cubamed

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/news/16157809.htm