Suspicions growing that Castro is terminally ill

Suspicions growing that Castro is terminally ill

By Carmen Gentile
The Washington Times
Washington D.C.
USA
Infosearch:
José F. Sánchez
Analyst
Bureau Chief
Cuba
Research Dept.
La Nueva Cuba
November 23, 2006

MIAMI -- Recent photos and videos of a visibly frail Fidel Castro --
combined with signs he is not recovering from surgery as quickly as
expected -- are feeding a wave of speculation that the longtime Cuban
president is in the throes of a terminal ailment.
For weeks after his late July transfer of authority to his brother,
Defense Minister Raul Castro, Fidel Castro and his most trusted
officials asserted that the father of Cuba's communist revolution would
resume the mantle of authority once he recovered from what has been
described vaguely as gastrointestinal surgery.

But Cuba's foreign minister backed away last week from earlier
predictions that Mr. Castro would go back to work in early December, and
the vice president yesterday was unable even to confirm that Mr. Castro
would be well enough to attend his own birthday celebration on Dec. 2

"It's a subject on which I don't want to speculate," Foreign Minister
Felipe Perez Roque told the Associated Press in Havana, though he
maintained that the government was "optimistic" about Mr. Castro's recovery.

Mr. Castro's health has been declared a Cuban state secret, leaving the
U.S. intelligence and medical community to sift through minor clues
about his true condition.

Particular attention is being paid to a recently released video showing
Mr. Castro, gaunt and noticeably thinner than in earlier pictures,
moving about awkwardly in the multicolored jumpsuit that has replaced
his trademark military garb.

U.S. officials quoted by the Associated Press have speculated, at least
partly based on the video, that Mr. Castro is suffering from stomach,
pancreatic or some other form of cancer that is largely inoperable. They
said they did not expect him to survive beyond the end of next year.

Bush administration officials refused to comment publicly on Mr.
Castro's health, but Dr. Pedro Greer, chief of gastroenterology at Mercy
Hospital in Miami, told The Washington Times that he thinks Mr. Castro's
final days are only months away.

Like other physicians, Dr. Greer noted that if Mr. Castro were
undergoing chemotherapy, his hair and trademark beard would have fallen
out by now. Were that the case, his death might be delayed by up to 18
months.

But without it, "his [Castro's] prognosis is very poor, at best," said
Dr. Greer, who has seen the video and photos published in Cuba's
state-run newspaper Granma.

"Optimistically, the reality of the matter is he has months to live at
best," he said.
Dr. Greer was unwilling to comment on published news reports speculating
that Mr. Castro's loose-fitting attire concealed a colostomy bag.

Castro allies reject all such speculation, insisting that the
80-year-old who has led his country since the Eisenhower administration
is on the mend.

"The only thing I can tell you is that he's recuperating," said Mr.
Castro's eldest son,
Fidel Castro Diaz-Balart, earlier this month.

But Castro watchers in the United States are increasingly convinced that
the ailing president will not return to work.

Among those who have concluded that Mr. Castro is terminally ill is
Brian Latell, a former Latin American specialist with the CIA, now a
researcher at the University of Miami and author of a book about the
Castro brothers.

"I wouldn't want to do anything as macabre as predict just when he's
going to die, but it seems to me, it will be sooner rather than later,"
Mr. Latell said.

Cuban activists in Miami, meanwhile, appear to be looking beyond Mr.
Castro's death and focusing on the prospects for real democratic change
on the island.

"I think regardless of whether Fidel Castro comes back ... the future of
Cuba is clear:
Change needs to come," said Alfredo Mesa, a member of the Cuban American
National Foundation, who stressed that any changes must happen
"peacefully, nonviolently" in order for Cuba to secure democratic rule.

"The Cuban people need to begin determining their own future," Mr. Mesa
said.

http://www.lanuevacuba.com/nuevacuba/notic-06-11-2310.htm