Cuba's Non-Army

Cuba's Non-Army

August 23, 2006: With Cuban dictator Fidel Castro both aging, and not
well, thoughts turn to what happens after he dies. That depends on what
the army does, and the army is not exactly what most people think it is.
Although the Cuban Army regularly displays its aging Soviet tanks and
personnel carriers, its main strength essentially lies in a large body
of personnel armed and trained as light infantry. Most of the heavy
ground equipment is in storage, and apparently poorly maintained, while
many units rely on bicycles for transportation. On paper, with all
reservists and militiamen mobilized, Cuba can probably put about a
million "troops" into the field. Some active forces and specialized
units aside, the state of training is not high. But that means about ten
percent of the population armed, and ready to fight for whatever they
believe the new (post-Castro) should be.

In a recent sick-bed message to the people of Cuba, Castro told them
that they had to be prepared for the worst. In conjunction with rumors
that his condition is not only serious, but that he is not coping well,
some analysts believe this suggests that even if he survives his current
illness, he may never return to full power, although he may resume it
officially.

Meanwhile, across Cuba the public has been remarkably calm, suggesting a
wait-and-see attitude similar to that displayed by Spaniards during
Francisco Franco's final illness. Cuba, however, is not likely to be
similar to post-Franco Spain. Dictator Francisco Franco made plans for a
constitutional monarchy to take over when he died, and it did. Fidel
Castro wants a communist dictatorship to continue running Cuba after he
is dead.

Although some reservists have been alerted for activation after Fidel
took sick, security forces have actually made themselves less visible
than normal. Fidel's brother Raul apparently believes he has things
under control. Raul has long been commander of the armed forces, and
supervised the security forces as well. That should make Raul the new
dictator, if his brother dies. But the one unknown is how the many
Cubans, unhappy over years of dictatorship and economic mismanagement,
will push for a real change. Most of the communist dictatorships have
been replaced by democracies since 1989, and all have prospered. North
Korean and Cuba remain faithful to communist dogma, and people are
getting tired of paying for it. Fidel had the personality and popularity
to keep a lid on this, but his dour brother Raul is more accustomed to
ordering people to do things, not persuading them. Perhaps aware of his
shortcomings in the mass manipulation area, Raul has already said he
plans to improve relations with the United States in the future. That
would be the post-Fidel future, because Fidel has used bad relations
with the United States as part of his act for decades. Amazingly, Fidel
has been able to get away with the "threat from the north" routine ever
since the 1960s, and use it to keep the impoverished and imprisoned
Cuban people with him.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/20060823.aspx