Castro Health Crisis Signals Start of Political Change in Cuba

US: Castro Health Crisis Signals Start of Political Change in Cuba

By DAVID GOLLUST
Washington D.C., VOA News

The U.S. State Department's senior official for Latin America said
President Fidel Castro's health crisis signals the beginning of
political change in Cuba. Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere
Affairs Thomas Shannon says he does not believe an effort to perpetuate
communist rule on the island can succeed. Shannon says a transition
effort is under way.

In the most detailed comments to date by a senior U.S. official about
the events in Cuba, Shannon said it is likely that a behind-the-scenes
effort has begun in Havana to perpetuate communist rule, but that the
circumstances of the Castro dictatorship make that difficult.

"Authoritarian regimes are like helicopters," he said. "They're 'single
fail-point' mechanisms. When a rotor comes off a helicopter, it crashes.
When a supreme leader disappears from an authoritarian regime, the
authoritarian regime flounders. It doesn't have the direction it
requires. And I think that's what we're seeing at this moment."

Shannon dismissed published suggestions that Raul Castro might be
reform-minded and capable of being a transitional leader for Cuba,
citing his past record as a ruthless facilitator of his brother's policies.

He also said that, given the regime's harsh treatment of dissenters,
especially in recent years, there is no visible opposition leader to
turn to, though the country's dissident movement has proven durable.

"There is not an over-arching figure, such as a Lech Walesa, in Cuba at
this point," he noted. "But there are a series of very courageous, very
articulate individuals who have worked hard to build democratic civil
society and dissident movements. And what we believe the international
community should be working towards is creating an environment that
allows these groups to begin to communicate with each other, and then
communicate more broadly with the Cuban people."

Shannon said the Bush administration's Cuba policy, backed by $129
million in recent funding from Congress, is aimed at opening so-called
political space in Cuba by providing a free flow of information, via
stepped-up U.S. broadcasting and uncensored Internet access.

He said the key to the future stability of Cuba is democracy, which is
something he said the United States and international community can
encourage, but not impose.

Under questioning, Shannon said he hopes that Venezuela, which under
populist President Hugo Chavez has provided massive aid to the Castro
government, will join the rest of the hemisphere in supporting a
transition to democracy.

He said the Cuba-Venezuela relationship now is largely one between the
two leaders, and that it remains to be seen what will happen to it when
a non-Castro Cuba emerges.

© VOA News

August 22, 2006

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