Third man dilemma in Cuba Who would succeed Fidel Castro or brother Raul?

'Third man' dilemma in Cuba Who would succeed Fidel Castro or brother Raul?

A Q&A

Q & A to Brian Latell
Opinion & Analisis
The Sentinel
Florida
USA
Infosearch:
José F. Sánchez
Bureau Chief
Cuba
Research Dept.
La Nueva Cuba
June 4, 2006

Question: What is the secret of Fidel Castro's hold on power?

Brian Latell: He came to power in 1959 entirely on his own, as a
nationalist, a popular revolutionary, with a very high degree of
legitimacy in Cuba. He wasn't delivered to power with Soviet tanks the
way Eastern European leaders were. He still enjoys a certain degree of
legitimacy, mainly among the political and military elite in Cuba.

Secondly, he has always governed with an absolute iron fist. He does not
allow any opposition to coalesce into anything resembling a force or
movement. He has some of the world's most effective security police
intelligence services.

He also has an exceptional ability to persuade and to convince others of
the rightness of what he is doing. He's been able to do that from the
very beginning, for over 47 years now.

Under what circumstances might Fidel Castro give up power in Cuba?

He's going to be 80 years old this August. He's suffering from
Parkinson's disease. He's also having cognitive impairment. It could be
the result of the medications he takes for Parkinson's, or it could be
that he's suffering from the beginnings of Alzheimer's or some other
form of dementia. If that is right and if it gets worse, other leaders
are going to be required at some point to knock on his door and say,
"Commander in chief, we need to give you a little vacation."

I don't think anyone could do it other than his brother, Raul Castro,
the defense minister. Raul is second in command in the regime -- has
been from the very beginning. He is the world's longest-serving defense
minister.

Is Raul in better shape, physically and cognitively, than his brother?

Raul turned 75 on June 3. He's said to be a serious alcoholic,
unreformed. There could be some damage to him from all the drinking. But
otherwise, he appears, mentally, to be sharp.

When the transition from Fidel to Raul comes, for whatever reason, do
you foresee turmoil?

I think a lot of factors argue for a smooth Raulista succession. Raul
controls the most powerful institution: the military. He also controls
all the security and intelligence services. And he manages more than
half of the Cuban economy through military enterprises. He's been the
designated successor for 47 years. There are no rivals. The generals
will support Raul. I think the civilian leaders would also see it to
their own advantage to support Raul and a peaceful succession, rather
than have chaos on the island and potentially lose everything.

What comes after Raul?

This is one of the most interesting things about the Cuban experience:
All these decades, and there is no third man. The Castro brothers didn't
want anyone who might become a rival. The chances are very good that
after both Castros, this revolution will dissipate, and Cuba will go the
way of all the other communist regimes that have disappeared.

What do you think of the hardline policy that the United States has
pursued toward Cuba?

I worked with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the Ford
administration in 1975 to try to negotiate a rapprochement with Fidel
Castro. I believed, wrongly, that Castro was seriously negotiating. I
learned my lesson. Castro did not want good relations with the United
States. His higher priority was supporting violent, revolutionary
internationalism. The Kissinger-Ford effort crashed when tens of
thousands of Cuban troops went marching into Angola.

The Carter administration had exactly the same experience that Ford and
Kissinger did. Cuban troops went marching with Soviet troops into
Ethiopia in 1978, and the effort at rapprochement crashed a second time.
I concluded after those experiences, and I still believe, that Fidel
Castro does not want good relations with the United States. He prefers
to have the United States as an enemy to buttress up his political
support on the island.

Is the U.S. trade and travel ban the best approach to deal with Cuba, or
should we overwhelm the island with American dollars and American tourists?

Cuba currently is flooded with Latin American and Canadian and European
tourists. Their presence hasn't had the same impact that some people
argue would come from large numbers of Americans. The regime is still
very much in power.

With his ruthless approach to opposition, why is Castro still viewed
sympathetically by so many people?

There's a belief that Fidel Castro has been the victim, and the United
States has been the ogre. That's wrongheaded. The bottom line message
is, the impasse in relations all these years is not our fault. It's what
Fidel wants. He's a genius at misleading.

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