Wednesday, January 25, 2006

A 'Third Way' for Latin America?

A 'Third Way' for Latin America?

Washington (CNN) -- In Bolivia a few days ago, they were celebrating the inauguration of Evo Morales, the country's first Indian president.
He promised to reverse social injustice and to shield Bolivia from the influence of the United States, which he called an "imperial power." He is left of center, wants to decriminalize coca growing -- he used to grow it himself -- and change the anti-drug fight into a campaign against those who convert coca to cocaine. He wants to nationalize the country's natural gas supplies, the second richest on the continent.
Morales is the latest example of Latin America's shift toward socialism -- but this is not the old Communist-bloc row of uniform states. The economics and the people differ from place to place.
Chile recently elected its first female president, Michelle Bachelet. She was a prisoner when dictator Augusto Pinochet ruled. Like Ricardo Lagos, the socialist she follows, Bachelet is expected to have good relations with the U.S. The economy is doing well, experts say -- high copper prices, for one thing -- but the gap between rich and poor is very large, and many hope Bachelet will put some heart into the system.
Other leftist governments? Uruguay has Tabaro Vazques, a cancer specialist elected on promises to help the poor. A moderate, he heads the country's first leftist government, and gets along with the U.S.
Venezuela has vocally anti-American Hugo Chavez, who has created state banks, a state barter system to trade with other countries and more than 6,000 cooperatives that employ more than 200,000 people. He also has implemented regulations saying banks must make some of their loans to officially worthy projects, like small businesses and housing. Chavez, one reporter wrote, has so much oil money he can afford to be a populist, while most of his left-of-center colleagues can't.
Argentina's president Nestor Kirchner is center-left, and was a hero to many for restructuring the country after a massive debt default, though critics say he was too tough on the country's creditors. He wants a greater economic role for the state.
And in Brazil, there is President Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, who came out of the labor movement but has been criticized by some as being too conservative. He gets along with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who praised Brazil as "committed to a social agenda, but doing it in a way that is responsible economically."
They are different leaders, facing different problems, having different priorities. But they have one thing in common: they were all elected. The only unelected leftist leader in the hemisphere is Cuba's Fidel Castro, now 79 years old, who came to power by force of arms in 1959 and has kept power ever since. George W. Bush is the 10th U.S. president he's faced.
Queen Elizabeth II has been in power longer, but she doesn't really run her island; Castro does run his. He is the only old-fashioned Communist in the group, though Boris Yeltsin cut off aid after the Soviet Union collapsed, and tourism has replaced sugar as the basis of the economy. The U.S. dollar is legal currency there.
The U.S. is not very popular with most of these leaders. Agricultural protectionism -- no, you can't bring your crop into America -- is one reason. Some think the U.S. meddles in their domestic business; some feel ignored, saying U.S. foreign policy concentrates only on the Middle East. And some Middle East-based issues -- Abu Ghraib, torture, the camp at Guantanamo where detainees are held indefinitely without a trial -- rankle some Latin Americans. And this president is not as popular as some of his predecessors. But the degree of anti-Americanism varies from country to country.
What do they want for their countries? Something like a third way between capitalism and completely state-run socialism. But again, the problems, the plans, vary from place to place. Will they succeed? Results are likely to vary. But they were elected, and if the voters don't like what they do, they can presumably throw them out and vote in new people -- more leftist, more centrist, whatever.
Peru has an election later this year. A socialist is the frontrunner, the clippings say. But the two to watch in '06, the two big ones, are Brazil and Mexico. Between them, they have more than 60 percent of Latin America's population, more than 60 percent of its economic activity. And in each, there's going to be a contest -- President Lula seeking re-election in Brazil, and a three-way race in Mexico -- candidates from the left, the center, and the right.
Sounds like democracy, doesn't it?
 

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