'AFTER FIDEL': RAUL CASTRO EXPECTED TO SUCCEED HIS BROTHER

'AFTER FIDEL': RAUL CASTRO EXPECTED TO SUCCEED HIS BROTHER
By Georgie Anne GeyerWed Nov 2, 7:02 PM ET

WASHINGTON -- The question observers have been asking about Cuba for years has been, "What will happen after Fidel?" It seems to obsess people because Cuba is so close -- and yet, for 46 long years, the cunning Castro has kept it so far away from us.
For a long time, it seemed he would live forever, if only to spite the United States. But since he passed his 79th birthday in August, he looks increasingly fragile. So -- what DOES come next?
Undoubtedly the finest book (and in many ways, the only one) to tackle this subject is written by a highly experienced former CIA analyst who for many years was assigned to watching Cuba. In "After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro's Regime and Cuba's Next Leader," Brian Latell gives us an expertly analyzed look at what will happen if and when little brother Raul Castro takes over for his dominating big brother. The story unweaves almost as a Shakespearean tale told by a master of his subjects' psychology, fears and virtues.
Many years ago, Fidel tapped Raul as his successor, but nobody believed it: Raul was too weak, too sissified, too physically frail; he was cold; charisma never touched his soul, passion was his blood enemy. True, Raul was the organizer, brilliant as the minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces, the man who alone gave palpable structure to Fidel's bizarre and instinct-driven dreams. But -- as head of the country?
Latell begins with a study of two Rauls within one body -- one searching all his life to impress his imposing brother, even to the point of murder, and the other praised by family members who hated Fidel as the "good Raul."
Raul's first trial by fire came early on, Latell writes, when Fidel's revolutionary band was in Mexico in the mid-'50s and Fidel ordered his little brother to murder a man. That was only the beginning of his Rubicon, of the creation of "Cuba's Robespierre," as some called Raul. But he was also Fidel's organizational genius: "Many years ago," Latell writes, "he became the world's longest-serving defense minister, and one of its ablest as well. With the exception of Israel, no other small country has tallied as many stunning battlefield victories as Cuba has."
Then there was the "simpatico" Raul, the paterfamilias who looked after not only his but Fidel's neglected (and mostly illegitimate) children, the man who cried over Fidel's jealousy-driven execution of Raul's best friend, the famous Gen. Arnaldo Ochoa, in 1989 (but went along with it). Today, Latell believes, Raul embraces the "China model" for the economic future of Cuba and has assiduously wooed the American military to support him, when the time surely comes.
Latell harbors little doubt, absent any unexpected occurrence, that Raul will indeed take over if Fidel dies first. Why? "Under his leadership, the armed forces have always been the revolution's most stable and best managed institution," he writes. "They alone have experienced a high degree of leadership continuity, due in no small part to Raul's success in insulating them from his brother's whims and micromanagement. He has been the only senior regime official who has been allowed a relatively free hand to run his organization. He has made the military into the nearest thing to a true meritocracy among Cuba's revolutionary institutions."
In short, Latell foresees Raul and his loyal military "raulistas" taking power, liberalizing a la the Chinese model by allowing foreign investment but under the strict authoritarian control of the state, and using the contacts he has forged with American military officers who have been visiting the island for the last five years as his lifeline to the United States. (Latell notes that Cuban generals have, for at least the last 10 years, avoided the harsh, confrontational and obsessive "fidelista" language about the U.S.)
When I visited Brian Latell at his country home south of Washington, I asked him, "But what if this doesn't happen? What if Raul dies first?"
"If Raul dies first," he told me soberly, "the revolution is hanging by a thread. Raul has been essential to the continuity of the revolution. He's preserved the armed forces as an essential bulwark holding it all together. (There's never been a coup attempt.) I don't know how long he could last, even if he achieves a rapprochement with the U.S. and follows the Chinese model. There will be so many hard decisions."
The author also wonders about his psychology. "Which will come out," he asks, "the sympathetic Raul or the cruel Raul? Fidel created the cruel side of him -- he had to do what he said to get his attention. Now, will the repressed younger brother come out?" He shook his head.
News is beginning to leak out that the U.S. administration has stepped up planning for a Cuba without Castro, even to the point of putting Cuba on a secret list of countries where the U.S. might intervene in the future. If those Americans involved in such a potential fruitless and dangerous replay of history will read this brilliantly researched book, they might just finally learn something from the past.
(Georgie Anne Geyer is the author of "Guerrilla Prince: The Untold Story of Fidel Castro" (1991).)

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